Following the settlement of Deribit's monthly options on July 31, neither Bitcoin nor Ethereum exhibited a clear unidirectional trend. Despite the large expiration amount, BTC remained around $64,000, and ETH hovered around $1,890, with the overall market continuing its sideways trading pattern.
Bitcoin maturities approach $10 billion
According to Greeks.live data, 149,000 Bitcoin options expired that day, with a notional value of approximately $9.6 billion and a put/call ratio of 0.28. The maximum resistance level was $64,000. For Ethereum, 435,000 options expired, with a notional value of approximately $830 million and a put/call ratio of 0.63. The maximum resistance level was $1,850.
According to data compiled by PerpFinder based on Deribit's pre-settlement figures, open interest in Bitcoin call options was approximately $7.39 billion, and open interest in put options was approximately $2.06 billion, for a total notional open interest of approximately $9.45 billion, which is close to Greeks.live's estimate. The slight differences between the two sets of data are mainly related to the timing of the statistics and Bitcoin price fluctuations.
The so-called "maximum pain point" refers to a settlement price level at which the option buyer may suffer the greatest loss at expiration. However, this level does not necessarily mean that the spot price will converge towards that position, nor does it guarantee that the price will remain in that area after settlement.
Bullish positions dominate, but this has not led to a breakout.
Structurally, the Bitcoin options market has significantly more bullish positions than bearish positions, but this has not translated into an upward breakout after settlement. One reason is that many call options are concentrated at higher strike prices such as $70,000 and $72,000; only with a rapid price surge can these positions potentially generate profits at expiration.
The actual price movement did not match this. Before and after the settlement, Bitcoin's 24-hour fluctuation range was roughly between $63,787 and $65,305. After the settlement, the price was approximately $63,824, falling back below $64,000, indicating that buying pressure has not yet turned the area above $65,000 into effective support again.
Greeks.live also noted that the gamma exposure of Bitcoin call options is more dispersed, while that of put options is more concentrated. This structure affects market makers' hedging pace, but it cannot independently determine the subsequent direction. The firm also believes that current capital inflows remain limited, and the follow-through in the crypto market after the US stock market rebound has been weak; therefore, there are few conditions to drive a new round of price increases in the short term.
Ethereum has higher defense requirements than Bitcoin
In contrast, the Ethereum options market exhibits a more defensive character. Its put-call ratio of 0.63 indicates a higher demand for downside protection compared to Bitcoin. PerpFinder's pre-expiration statistics show approximately $499.4 million in open interest for Ethereum call options and $311.5 million for put options, totaling approximately $810.9 million, largely consistent with Greeks.live's data.
After settlement, Ethereum's price was approximately $1891, still above the major resistance level of $1850 and also above the $1800 range mentioned in some earlier market reports. Compared to the put/call ratio of 1.26 when the options expired on July 10, this figure has clearly declined by the end of the month, indicating that market defensive sentiment has weakened, but overall, it remains more cautious than Bitcoin.
The return of funds to ETFs still needs further verification.
As options expired, there were signs of a rebound in fund flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs. On July 30, the fund saw a net inflow of $233.1 million, with BlackRock IBIT attracting $183.4 million. However, fund flows had been fluctuating between inflows and outflows throughout the week, without forming a continuous trend.
The market's focus remains on whether Bitcoin can regain its footing above $65,000, and whether ETF inflows and spot trading volume will improve in tandem. Deribit data shows that Bitcoin options expiring on August 28th currently have approximately $3.15 billion in open interest, while contracts expiring on September 25th have approximately $6.22 billion in open interest. This July settlement appears to be more of a large-scale position clearing and has not yet changed Bitcoin's current range-bound trading pattern.
