Background Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at approximately $63,687, reflecting a modest 24-hour gain of +0.35%. However, beneath the surface of this seemingly stable price action, a more ominous picture is emerging from Galaxy Research—one of the most respected institutional crypto research firms on Wall Street.

In a comprehensive cycle analysis published on June 13, 2026, Galaxy Research analyst Alex Thorn outlined a sobering thesis: Bitcoin's network cost basis now stands at just 43.7% of its all-time high, a metric historically correlated with cycle bottom formations. Based on this framework, the firm projects a baseline bottom range of $40,000 to $46,000, representing a potential drawdown of approximately 28%-37% from current levels.