以太幣:外媒:ETH回落後市場轉空,關注1,920美元阻力
CoinPedia
07-25 16:50
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外媒稱,ETH 回落至 1900 美元下方後,市場情緒轉弱,但交易所儲備下降與持倉回升顯示資金仍在回流。
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外媒稱,以太坊在接近 1,920 美元時遇阻,價格重新跌破 1,900 美元,短線情緒明顯轉弱。不過,從交易所儲備和衍生性商品持股看,市場並未出現全面撤退,資金仍在觀察下一輪方向選擇。

交易所儲備繼續下降

文章引述 CryptoQuant 數據稱,中心化交易所持有的 ETH 已降至約 1,510 萬枚,低於一年前的 2,100 多萬枚,處於近年較低水準。這個變化通常意味著,更多 ETH 被轉入自託管錢包、質押協議或長期持有帳戶,短期可出售的流通量隨之減少。

如果需求回升,較低的交易所儲備往往會減輕賣壓,為價格反彈提供條件。但這類變化更反映中期供給結構,未必能立刻扭轉短線波動。

未平倉合約回升至 117 億美元附近

文章也提到,以太坊未平倉合約在 6 月下旬回落後開始修復。 CryptoQuant 數據顯示,相關規模已回升至接近 117 億美元,高於先前不足 100 億美元的低位,但仍明顯低於年內約 165 億美元的高點。

這說明部分交易者正在重新進入衍生性商品市場,新的部位開始建立。若持倉持續增加,同時價格重新站上 1,920 美元,通常會被視為新增資金支持上漲。相反,如果持倉上升但價格遲遲無法突破,槓桿清算風險也會重新累積。

空頭情緒升溫後,市場關注反向修復

文章引述 Santiment 數據稱,以太坊相關討論中的正負面評論比值,已降至近幾週較低水平。類似情況曾在 6 月 27 日和 7 月 11 日出現,隨後 ETH 分別錄得約 14% 和 7% 的反彈。

文章認為,情緒極度偏空有時會成為反向交易訊號,但單靠情緒不足以確認反轉,仍需價格走勢配合。目前更關鍵的位置在 1780 至 1800 美元區間,這裡既是前期突破區域,也對應近期較高低點。

若該支撐守住,ETH 可能會再次測試 1,920 美元,進一步上方則看向 1,970 美元和 2,000 美元整數關口。若日線失守 1,765 美元,目前的抬升結構可能被破壞,回檔空間也會擴大。

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