Deutsche Bank: The weakening of the US dollar reflects a re-pricing of the interest rate hike path
2026-07-30 14:34:46
According to CoinMeta, the foreign exchange research team at Deutsche Bank noted that after the Federal Reserve maintained its interest rates unchanged but significant internal divisions were exposed, the US dollar index fell for a time, while the euro rose. The softer tone of the US dollar, combined with market pricing for a rate hike in September and the upward movement in long-term US Treasury yields, jointly drove an expansion in gains in Europe and the United States, reflecting a shift in market expectations regarding US monetary policy. Analysts at the bank stated that three officials voted against raising rates by 25 basis points, highlighting growing concerns about persistent inflation. The market interpreted this decision as less hawkish than what the opposing votes suggested, which pushed down the yield on two-year US Treasuries and the value of the US dollar. However, long-term yields rose significantly as investors believed that the Fed's response was not sufficient to curb persistent inflation. Futures on federal funds rates indicate that the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September is 63%. The market has lowered its expectation for cumulative rate hikes this year from 42 basis points on Tuesday to 33 basis points.
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Source:Jin10 Data
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