Glassnode: The arbitrage profit from futures basis is lower than the yield of US Treasury bonds BTC
2026-07-31 19:07:50
According to CoinMeta, Wu said that Glassnode mentioned in the weekly report that since February of this year, the three-month futures basis arbitrage returns of BTC have continuously been lower than the yield of U.S. two-year Treasury bonds, marking the second time in history that such a long-term inversion has occurred. As a result, institutional funds are more inclined to hold cash and Treasury bonds. The trading volume of BTC spot has dropped to its lowest level since 2019, and the capital flow in the exchange as well as the buying interest in ETF spot is also relatively weak. BTC is currently in the main cost-intensive range of $62,000 to $68,000, with $69,000 being a key resistance level. Glassnode believes that although this bear market has had the smallest decline in history, its duration is still short enough not to confirm a bottom has been reached, and its model currently maintains a mild “risk aversion” signal.
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