According to CoinMeta, based on Glassnode data, BTC is currently operating below the cost price of $68,500 for short-term holders and the actual market average of $75,800. The on-chain models continue to confirm that the market is in the capitulation phase. This round has not reached a peak loss of about 25%, which is significantly lower than the over 60% levels seen in previous cycles. Moreover, the 90-day profit-to-loss ratio remains at 0.75, and it has not yet fallen below the historically common range of 0.5, which indicates a "seller exhaustion" situation. At the same time, demand for perpetual contracts has turned positive, and the ETF cash flow has stabilized to some extent. However, Coinbase and premium are still negative, indicating that demand for spot in the United States has not truly returned. Glassnode believes that any current rebound should be viewed as a localized recovery rather than a trend reversal until U.S. Treasury yields decline and the on-chain profit-to-loss structure further improves.