Institution: Neutral interest rates may become a key risk for Japan's government bond market
2026-08-25 14:51:26
According to CoinMeta, Takayuki Miyajima, an economist from Sony Financial Group, stated that the neutral interest rate (i.e., the interest rate level that neither stimulates nor suppresses the economy) is one of the key risks facing the Japanese government bond market. If the financial environment remains loose even after the interest rate hikes take effect, market expectations for the neutral interest rate could rise above the 1.50% to 1.75% range predicted by bond market experts. Such a change could push market expectations for the terminal interest rate above the current level of 2.25%, and help to maintain the yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds firmly above 3%.
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Source:Jin10 Data
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