According to CoinMeta, trader “xm39”, who expected an escalation of the war, went short on tens of millions of dollars worth of crude oil overnight and closed 75% of his positions related to the invasion of Iran. Previously, this trader had bet that “the United States would invade Iran before 2027” and was long on crude oil. His associated address, 0x40f, closed out 175,900 long positions in WTI crude oil, with a transaction volume of about 14.253 million US dollars, resulting in a loss of approximately 282,000 US dollars. About two minutes later, “xm39” began to sell off war-related positions in Polymarket, selling 1.1823 million positions of “the United States will invade Iran before 2027” yes through 50 transactions. At the time of sale, the implied probability in the market was about 14.1%, and he recovered about 166,700 US dollars. This sale accounted for about 75.5% of his positions, and currently, he only retains 383,100 positions. As of the time of publication, the implied probability in the market for “the United States will invade Iran before 2027” has dropped to 12.5%. This address has opened a total of 122,500 short positions in CL and currently holds a full position of about 10.183 million US dollars in shorts at a 20-fold leverage, with a floating profit of about 30,000 US dollars and a return rate of about 5.9%, and the liquidation price is 93.09 US dollars.