Ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week, the market remains significantly divided on the outcome. Analysts believe that Bitcoin may be less sensitive to policy changes this time compared to the Nasdaq index and AI-related tech stocks.
Currently, BTC is fluctuating above $63,000. Despite recent pressure on tech stocks, Bitcoin has still risen by about 6% since July, indicating a weakening correlation with traditional risk assets.
Market betting remains divided
According to CME FedWatch data, the market currently expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at a probability of about 70%, and the probability of raising rates by 25 basis points at about 30%.
Block Scholes research analyst Thahbib Rahman stated that this was one of the most uncertain Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings in recent years. Market sentiment regarding the policy path has become more fragmented due to Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's limited forward guidance.
Bitcoin's correlation with US stocks weakens
Vetle Lunde, research director at K33 Research, said that the Nasdaq had accumulated strong gains before entering July, and market positions were more crowded; in contrast, Bitcoin was still in a relatively low consolidation phase, so the weakening correlation between the two was not surprising.
He believes that, in this context, the impact of this week's Fed meeting on BTC may be less than in previous periods of high policy uncertainty.
Block Scholes also noted that this divergence became more pronounced in July: Bitcoin rose about 6% during the month, the S&P 500 remained largely flat, while a basket of semiconductor stocks fell by nearly 20%.
Macroeconomic disturbances continue to affect expectations
Rahman stated that market expectations have fluctuated multiple times over the past month. On the one hand, inflation data has softened; on the other hand, geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and tariff risks have renewed uncertainty.
However, he also pointed out that sentiment in the crypto market is still improving. If the Federal Reserve releases any dovish signals, Bitcoin's recent relatively strong performance could continue.
