The crypto market reacted modestly to the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged. Bitcoin remained consolidating around $64,000, while major cryptocurrencies generally saw only minor price fluctuations, indicating that the decision had been largely priced in by the market. Meanwhile, gold and silver-related ETFs strengthened, while crypto-related stocks showed mixed performance.
Divergence shifts to September meeting
The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate between 3.5% and 3.75%. This was the second Federal Open Market Committee meeting chaired by Chairman Kevin Warsh.
The vote was 9 to 3. The presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks of Cleveland, Dallas, and Minneapolis supported a 25 basis point rate hike. Prior to the announcement, the market had given approximately one-third of the probability of a rate hike.
The Federal Reserve stated that U.S. economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, the job market is generally stable, but inflation remains above the 2% target. Since there was no unexpected rate hike this time, short-term risks have eased somewhat, but the three dissenting votes have also shifted market attention to the September meeting.
Bitcoin remains above $64,000.
Following the announcement of the resolution, Bitcoin traded at approximately $64,129, a 24-hour increase of about 0.3%. Ethereum traded at approximately $1,911, a 0.6% increase.
- BNB rose approximately 0.4%.
- XRP rose by approximately 1.3%.
- Solana rose approximately 0.9%.
TRON, Hyperliquid, and Dogecoin also saw only slight gains. The total market capitalization increased by approximately 0.4% to around $2.27 trillion.
Sentiment remains cautious. On July 29, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 29, in the "fear" zone. Bitcoin's Coinbase Premium remained negative, meaning that Bitcoin prices on Coinbase were lower than on Binance, reflecting relatively weaker spot demand in the US compared to overseas markets.
Gold prices strengthened, while mining stocks declined.
Amid inflation concerns and renewed tensions in the Middle East, some funds continued to flow into defensive assets. Gold and silver ETFs rose by approximately 1.25% and 2.52%, respectively.
Crypto-related U.S. stocks showed mixed performance. Strategy rose about 2.1%, Coinbase fell about 1%, and Robinhood fell about 1.7%. Mining companies saw larger declines, with MARA Holdings, Riot Platforms, and CleanSpark all falling about 6% on the day. However, the pullback in these mining stocks had already begun before the interest rate decision and cannot be entirely attributed to this meeting.
The Clarity Act becomes the next focus.
After the interest rate decision failed to provide a clear direction, the market began to focus on US cryptocurrency regulatory legislation. The CLARITY Act is seen as one of the more direct industry catalysts to come.
Polymarket traders currently estimate the bill has a 27% chance of becoming law by 2026, with related market trading volume around $3 million. Senate negotiations remain divided, with key points including political ethics provisions and whether crypto companies can offer rewards pegged to stablecoin balances.
If the bill fails to advance before the Senate recess in August, its room for progress in the midterm election cycle may further narrow. Going forward, inflation and employment data will continue to influence market expectations for the September meeting and determine whether Bitcoin can break out of its current range.
