web3: Foreign media: After mining companies shift to AI, their linkage with Bitcoin weakens
Coinpaper
3h ago
Ai Focus
Foreign media reports that after Bitcoin mining companies shifted to AI data centers, the correlation between stocks and BTC is weakening, with Strategy still being more closely aligned with Bitcoin as a benchmark.
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外媒称,想通过矿业股获得比特币敞口的投资者,面对的标的正在发生变化。部分矿企的估值基础,已不再主要来自挖矿产出,而是电力接入、数据中心资产,以及 AI 和高性能计算合同。

90天相关性差异拉大

Fundstrat 联合创始人 Tom Lee 对 17 只加密相关大盘股的排序显示,Strategy 与比特币在过去 90 天的相关性为 78%,仍是最接近 BTC 的股票之一。相比之下,Core Scientific 只有 16%,Cipher Mining、TeraWulf 和 Hut 8 分别为 17%、18% 和 19%。

在以太坊相关股票中,Tom Lee 担任董事长的 BitMine Immersion Technologies 与 ETH 的相关性达到 80%,Coinbase 为 74%。文章认为,BitMine 持续扩大 ETH 储备,是其股价更贴近以太坊走势的重要原因。

矿企收入结构正在变化

文章指出,矿企与比特币联动减弱,已能从财报中看到。Core Scientific 第二季度营收为 1.642 亿美元,其中 1.367 亿美元来自机房托管,自营挖矿收入仅 2150 万美元。该公司正把更多电力从加密挖矿转向长期 AI 和高性能计算合同。

TeraWulf 也出现类似变化。其第一季度高性能计算租赁收入为 2100 万美元,高于数字资产业务的 1300 万美元。管理层预计,已签约的计算业务将降低公司过去对比特币波动的敏感度。

IREN 仍处在转型较早阶段。该公司 3 月季度比特币挖矿收入为 1.112 亿美元,AI 云服务收入为 3360 万美元,约占总销售额的 23%。不过,公司已将 AI 云业务列为主要增长方向。

市场更看重电力与机房资源

文章认为,这一转向也改变了投资者对矿企的定价方式。对大型云计算客户而言,稀缺的电力接入和数据中心场地,可能比这些公司直接产出比特币的能力更有价值。

相比之下,Strategy 的估值核心仍然是比特币持仓。虽然其资本运作方式近来更灵活,但股东面对的价格波动,依然主要来自 BTC 本身。这也使其继续被视为更直接的比特币美股代理标的。

文章同时提到,高相关性并不意味着风险更低。企业比特币财库会放大收益和亏损,而相关性本身反映的是走势同步程度,不等同于投资回报。

整体来看,随着 AI 合同逐步替代挖矿收入,矿业股与比特币之间的联系可能继续减弱。过去被视为“杠杆化 BTC 敞口”的矿企股票,正越来越像围绕电力、GPU 和长期算力合同展开的基础设施交易。

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