SpaceX was once one of the stocks with the most volatile movements among large-cap stocks in its initial listing period, but this trend has clearly cooled down recently. Over the past three weeks, the stock has been fluctuating around $140, with a range of about $10, and the options market has accordingly adjusted its pricing expectations for future price swings.

Implied volatility has significantly declined.

ThinkOrSwim Data shows that the implied volatility of SpaceX is currently around 57, which is a significant drop from over 120 before the financial report was released. If measured by the volatility on the first day of trading, it would have been sufficient to make it one of the stocks with the highest volatility among the S&P 500 constituents; however, at the current level, it is no longer in the most active range.

Convex Asset Management Chief Investment Officer Noel Smith stated that the volatility characteristics of SpaceX have returned to normal from an extreme state. He previously predicted in June that the volatility of this stock would significantly decline.

On September 25, the option pricing fluctuated by approximately 11%.

Taking the weekly options that expire on September 25 as an example, the current market pricing expects a volatility of about $16, which corresponds to an implied percentage change of about 11%. In contrast, stocks such as Intel, Robinhood, Corning, and Dell are currently priced by the options market to have a larger short-term volatility range.

From the position structure, SpaceX currently has more unexercised put options than call options. Data tracked by Barchart shows that the ratio of unexercised put to call options is 1.1, which is lower than the peak of 1.2 reached on Monday this week, indicating that defensive positions are still in place, but their intensity has somewhat diminished.

This week, the focus of trading has shifted towards a bullish outlook.

SpotGamma Data shows that on Thursday, SpaceX approximately 500,000 options contracts were traded, of which about 335,000 were call options. Among these call contracts, around 168,000 were considered active purchases; in contrast, there were about 75,000 actively purchased put options.

This indicates that, although the overall position structure remains slightly defensive, short-term trading funds are more inclined to bet on an upward movement in stock prices this week, or at least to bet on stock prices remaining stable rather than falling rapidly. Market participants also point out that although the implied volatility has declined, it is still higher than the actual volatility of the stocks, so the current option prices may not necessarily be considered cheap.