Bitcoin previously rose from around $63,500 to over $80,000 in just over a week. On August 28th, QCP Capital stated that the main support for this upward movement came from spot buying and short covering, rather than traders continuing to increase leverage to chase higher prices.

ETF The influx of funds coincides with a decrease in open positions.

QCP Estimates suggest that US spot Bitcoin ETF attracted approximately $2.8 billion in capital inflows during this round of rebound over 8 consecutive trading days. Meanwhile, the number of open futures contracts denominated in BTC decreased from around 646,000 in mid-August to 588,000 BTC.

This means that when the price of Bitcoin rises, the overall open interest in the futures market is actually declining. QCP believes that this combination is more indicative of spot funds driving the market and short positions being closed, rather than a large number of new leveraged long positions entering the market. The institution also mentioned that the funding rates have remained relatively modest during the upward trend, indicating that the market has not become significantly overheated.

Structurally speaking, this type of upward trend is usually more stable than a situation where "positions are rapidly expanded and funding rates continue to rise," as the latter is more likely to trigger concentrated liquidations during pullbacks. However, a decrease in leverage does not necessarily mean that the upward trend will continue.

On August 28th, it turned into a single-day net outflow.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of $201.9 million on August 28, after nine consecutive trading days of net inflows, marking a significant reversal from the previous day's net inflow of $242.3 million. Nevertheless, these funds still saw a total net inflow of approximately $924.5 million during the week from August 24 to 28.

After the weakening of capital flows, Bitcoin failed to hold above $80,000. Reports indicate that on August 29, Bitcoin fell back to around $77,500, with a 24-hour decline of about 2.9%. This has prompted the market to re-evaluate whether the judgment that "spot demand drives price increases" is still valid.

A single day of outflows alone is not sufficient to indicate that institutional funds have been continuously withdrawing. If net outflows continue to occur in the future, the support of the spot ETF for this round of rebound will be further questioned; if funds turn back into net inflows, it will strengthen the belief that there are still buyers in the spot market.

Inflation and U.S. Treasury bond repurchases remain external variables

At the macro level, in July, the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index ( PCE ) rose 3.7% year-on-year, and the core PCE rose 3.3% year-on-year; both figures exceeded the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. Both indicators also increased by 0.2% month-on-month. This indicates that the Federal Reserve still has limited room to ease financial conditions in the short term.

QCP mentioned that before Jackson Hole speech, the market was factoring in a roughly 35% probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike in September. If interest rate expectations continue to rise, the US dollar and US Treasury yields may be supported, which could put pressure on Bitcoin.

Another liquidity factor that has attracted market attention comes from the U.S. Treasury Department. Starting from September 9th, the Treasury Department increased the scale of its long-term government bond repurchase operations from a maximum of $2 billion per time to at least $4 billion, covering bonds with maturities ranging from 10 to 30 years, and this arrangement is planned to continue until November 4th. The purpose of this measure is to improve the liquidity of older bonds and it is not equivalent to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policy.

Next, the market's focus will still be on two indicators: one is whether there is a return to net inflow of funds for spot ETF, and the other is whether futures positions will gradually recover while the funding rate remains moderate. If prices continue to rise but leverage accumulates rapidly, the risk of subsequent fluctuations will also increase accordingly.