After the United States launched a new round of strikes against Iran over the weekend, crude oil prices rose and the U.S. stock market declined, but Bitcoin still remained above $78,000 on Monday. The market is facing both an escalation in geopolitical tensions and more hawkish interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve, yet crypto assets as a whole performed relatively steadily.
Bitcoin continues to rise significantly within the month
According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin traded at around $78,623 on Monday, with a 0.7% decline over 24 hours, and at one point during the session it fell to near $77,162. Despite the short-term weakness, Bitcoin's cumulative gain in August is still expected to exceed 24%, setting a new record for the strongest single-month performance since 2017.
Ethereum traded at around $2,448 on Monday, showing a slight decline during the day, but the cumulative increase before the end of the month was close to 30%.
Oil prices rise, U.S. stocks fall back
New rounds of clashes between the US and Iran over the weekend have once again raised concerns in the market regarding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, WTI crude oil futures rose by 2.6%, reaching around $85.60 per barrel.
The U.S. stock market turned down, with the S&P 500 index falling by 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite Index dropping by 0.4%. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin did not experience a more significant decline, becoming one of the focal points of attention in the market on that day.
Derivative trading has increased, but the number of new positions is limited.
Nexo Dispatch Analyst Iliya Kalchev indicates that despite the intensification of geopolitical conflicts and the Fed's more hawkish stance, Bitcoin has been able to maintain high levels, suggesting that it has a strong short-term resilience to pressure.
- 24-hour trading volume: over $183 billion
- Open positions: Overall changes are not significant.
- Fund characteristics: Focus on portfolio rebalancing
He mentioned that the derivatives market is more like readjusting positions, rather than a large-scale influx of new funds.
September interest rate hike expectations are heating up
The hawkish stance of Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium also put pressure on risk assets. Reports indicate that market expectations for a rate hike in September have risen from around 35% before the speech to about 58%.
Gold also fell, dropping to around $4,440, indicating that rising interest rate expectations are suppressing the performance of traditional safe-haven assets.
Bitcoin ETF ends nine days of net inflow
In the second half of last week, there were signs of a slowdown in Bitcoin's upward trend during August. Spot Bitcoin ETF saw the end of nine consecutive trading days of net inflows, while Ethereum-related funds continued to attract capital.
Next, the market will focus on the U.S. employment report to be released this Friday, as well as the CPI data for August, which was published on September 11. These two sets of data will continue to influence interest rate expectations and may also determine the short-term direction of the crypto market.
