At a time when the sustainability of AI transactions is being questioned and rising global interest rates are once again causing market concerns, Apple is being seen by some funds as a relatively defensive target within the technology sector. The latest market data shows that the short-term correlation between this large tech stock and the Nasdaq 100 index has dropped to a reverse level that has been rare in nearly 20 years.
On the 30th, the correlation dropped to negative 0.86.
According to CNBC, based on data from ThinkOrSwim, the 30-day correlation between Apple's stock price and the NASDAQ 100 index dropped to -0.86 last Thursday and is currently around -0.82. This indicates that in recent times, Apple's stock price trend has significantly deviated from that of its main tech peers.
Apple accounts for approximately 7.5% of the weight in the Nasdaq 100 index. Over the past month, Apple's stock price has risen by 7%, while the Nasdaq 100 index has only increased by 1% during the same period. If we extend the time frame to this year, Apple's cumulative gain is about 20%, which is also higher than the 15% increase of the Nasdaq 100 index.
After the AI trading cooled down, funds shifted to other areas.
Over the past decade, there have also been periodic reverse fluctuations between Apple's stock price and the Nasdaq index, but neither in terms of magnitude nor duration were they as significant as this time. CNBC mentioned that the last time there was a similar situation was in the first quarter of 2024. At that time, Apple itself was in a phase of correction, while market funds focused on flowing towards the leading stocks in the AI sector.
The CEO Dave Mazza stated that when the market begins to re-evaluate AI trades, Apple often does not face simultaneous selling pressure, as it was not the asset with the highest risk exposure in that round of trades. In his view, Apple is becoming a type of hedging option within the Nasdaq index.
Option trades tend to be bullish.
Trading signs in the derivatives market indicate that some investors believe Apple's relative strength may continue. ThinkOrSwim Data shows that on Tuesday, among Apple option trades, there were approximately 1.5 million call options traded, which is significantly higher than the less than 700,000 put options.
Among them, approximately 543,000 call options are considered to have been actively initiated by buyers, while the number of put options actively purchased is less than 220,000. According to the capital flow analysis using Barchart, the net Delta open position, which reflects the sensitivity of option prices to the underlying stock price, also clearly favors a bullish direction.
Trading volume increases synchronously
High trading volume also reinforced this change in positions. Data from SpotGamma and Cboe LiveVol shows that Apple options became the second most active contracts in the market on Tuesday, with overall trading volume approximately twice the average of the past 30 days.
Looking at a longer period, the performance of Apple and the Nasdaq index has not completely diverged. Over the past three years, the Nasdaq index has risen by about 90%, while Apple has risen by about 82%. However, at this stage, as the market's sensitivity to high-valued trades involving AI increases, Apple is being seen by more investors as a relatively stable option among large tech stocks.
