Foreign media cited data from the blockchain analysis platform CryptoQuant stating that Bitcoin's cyclical momentum indicator has entered a positive range for the first time in 8 months, reigniting debates about whether the traditional four-year cycle is no longer valid. The article suggests that such a change usually occurs towards the end of a prolonged decline, but it will still be necessary to observe whether the indicator can maintain high levels in the coming weeks.
Price rebound drives the signal back to positive.
Recently, Bitcoin rose from $62,000 to around $81,000, revitalizing a market that had been dormant for months. The article states that this rebound has brought cyclical momentum indicators back into a bullish range, which is seen as an early signal that the bear market phase may be coming to an end.
However, after the current price returned to around $78,000, the market entered a relatively neutral consolidation zone. Foreign media believes that this range is more like a pause after a rebound, rather than a continuation of a one-way upward trend.
In August, positions continued to concentrate among large traders.
The article states that the on-chain position holding structure is exhibiting typical characteristics of a cyclical shift, with positions shifting from retail investors who sell in panic to long-term holders.
- Large wallets holding at least 100 BTC coins increased their holdings by approximately 60,000 BTC coins in August.
- Investors holding less than 100 BTC coins sold a total of approximately 47,000 BTC coins in August.
- Some large investors did not sell their coins directly; instead, they used Bitcoin as collateral to obtain loans.
Foreign media reports that such mortgage lending activities have increased by about 18% on some platforms. This means that some large investors prefer to maintain their Bitcoin exposure while shifting some of the risks to other digital assets.
ETF and USDC Capital Reflow
In addition to changes in on-chain positions, the article also mentions that off-exchange funds are flowing back. US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded its strongest single-week inflow in nearly 10 months, with major trading platforms absorbing over $470 million in USDC inflows at the same time.
In the view of foreign media, this indicates that market liquidity is improving, and the rebound is not entirely driven by short-term sentiment. However, upward pressure still exists, especially as some retail investors chose to take profits after the first round of gains.
The article mentions that the current support level of interest is around $69,000, which is close to the average purchase cost of short-term holders. If this area remains stable, a larger upward trend for Bitcoin is expected to continue.
