Bitcoin has not yet emerged from its range-bound fluctuations before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in September. Many analysts believe that before the policy outcomes are implemented, the market is more likely to fluctuate repeatedly between $78,000 and $82,000, rather than seeing a clear breakout immediately.

As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at around $79,176, a decrease of 0.8% over the past 24 hours. CoinGecko data shows that the price range over the past day was between $78,707 and $80,494, with trading volume increasing to approximately $24.4 billion.

Selling pressure remains above $82,000.

Bitfinex indicated to crypto.news that the current trend is more closely aligned with a 'moderately strong consolidation' rather than a confirmed upward breakout. The continuous buying pressure on spot ETF provides support for the market, but the higher yields on U.S. Treasuries, as well as market expectations of another potential interest rate hike by the United States, are still suppressing the performance of risk assets.

The report mentioned that Bitcoin once again attempted to stabilize above $80,000, but encountered selling pressure near $80,500, and the price remained within the range of $77,200 to $82,100 defined by Bitfinex. CoinEx's chief analyst, Jeff Ko, expects that the range of fluctuations may narrow further before the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision.

The short-term support level he mentioned is between $78,000 and $79,000, with the upper boundary of the range around $82,000. If it falls below the lower boundary, the market may retest $77,200; if it breaks above, it needs to first stabilize above $80,500 before having a chance to challenge the stronger selling pressure around $82,000.

ETF Capital flow continues to provide support

As of the week ending September 4, ETF spot Bitcoin listed in the United States saw a net inflow of $986.9 million in that single week, with a cumulative net inflow of approximately $3.8 billion over the past three weeks. The continuous inflow of institutional funds is an important reason why Bitcoin has been able to remain around $80,000 despite the rising expectations of interest rate hikes in the market.

However, he also believes that just three consecutive weeks of net inflows are not sufficient to confirm that the market has entered a stable long-term accumulation phase. Compared to the buying pressure that emerges after a rapid price increase, if Bitcoin continues to see net inflows during a sideways movement or even a decline, it would be more indicative of an increasing demand for strategic investment.

The report also mentioned that US spot Bitcoin ETF attracted a total of $3.52 billion in capital inflows in August, with net inflows recorded on 16 out of 21 trading days. Meanwhile, the price of Bitcoin rose from just over $60,000 to around $80,000.

However, ETF did not completely stop the downward trend in the first half of this year. The article cited previous data stating that in the first half of 2026, such funds experienced a total net outflow of $5.29 billion, during which time the price of Bitcoin fell from around $94,000 to $63,000.

Inflation data and interest rates become the focus of attention

Analysts believe that the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on September 15th to 16th is the biggest external variable that could determine whether the current range will be broken. The market is assessing whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by another 25 basis points on top of the current target range of 3.50% to 3.75% for the federal funds rate.

Prior to that, U.S. inflation data will affect expectations first. The U.S. Producer Price Index will be released on September 10th, and the Consumer Price Index on September 11th. If inflation data exceeds expectations and drives up U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar further, Bitcoin will face more direct stress tests.

Ko mentioned that the yield on 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds has recently risen above 4.34%, and the yield on 10-year bonds is close to 4.8%. In such an environment, interest-free assets generally find it more difficult to attract new funds. Therefore, the market will focus on whether the buying momentum of ETF can continue amidst these high yields.

U.S. Treasury Department's repurchase operations draw attention

In addition to inflation and interest rates, the U.S. Treasury Department will expand its repurchase operations on September 9th, which is also seen as an opportunity to observe the liquidity in the bond market. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent previously stated that the maximum size of each supportive repurchase for 10- to 30-year nominal coupon Treasury bonds would be increased from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, and this arrangement will continue until November 4th.

Reports indicate that following the announcement of this adjustment, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell from high levels, and the yield on 10-year bonds also decreased accordingly. During the same period, Bitcoin rose by 8.2% in less than 12 hours, from $64,100 to $69,500. However, the Treasury Department has not confirmed a direct causal relationship between the repurchase adjustment and this surge in Bitcoin prices.

Analysts will next focus on three key indicators: spot ETF capital flows, spot buying orders around the current price level, and Bitcoin's reaction to changes in U.S. Treasury yield rates. Only if the price breaks through the range of $78,000 to $82,000 and there is a significant increase in open futures contracts, is it more likely that the market will see a new round of directional choices.