After Bitcoin fell back to around $78,000, the market began to re-evaluate the profit-taking pressure from large traders in the short term. CryptoQuant data shows that the unrealized profits of whale accounts among short-term holders have risen to $9.07 billion, reaching the highest level since statistics started in 2016.
The holding period for these addresses usually does not exceed 155 days. Compared to long-term holders, this type of capital is more likely to realize profits during rapid price fluctuations, and therefore changes in their book profits are often seen as an important signal of short-term selling pressure.
After record floating profits, the risk of pullback increases
CryptoQuant believes that the current issue is not with the scale of floating profits themselves, but rather that once prices continue to fall, this portion of profits could quickly turn into selling pressure. On September 5th, when Bitcoin's daily decline was less than 2%, the unrealized profits of these large traders fell from a high to $7.51 billion, indicating that these positions are quite sensitive to price fluctuations.
Analysts point out that large accounts held for a short period are typically the type of funds that tend to take profits more quickly in the market. When prices fall below key support levels, these positions are more likely to be actively reduced, thereby magnifying short-term fluctuations.
ETF Capital flow becomes a focal point for observation
If the short-term whales start to realize their profits, whether the spot buying orders can absorb the additional supply will become the key to Bitcoin's next move. Recently, there has still been a certain amount of capital flowing into US spot Bitcoin ETF; with a cumulative net inflow of about $1 billion in the past three days, it indicates that institutional buying orders have not completely withdrawn.
However, the pressure on the supply side has not dissipated. According to data cited in reports, Binance currently holds approximately 685,000 to 687,000 BTC, and the average net inflow into exchanges over the past seven days has risen to about 593 BTC, indicating that some funds are still flowing back into the trading platforms.
- Short-term whales fail to realize profits: $9.07 billion
- In the past three days, the net inflow of spot Bitcoin ETF has been approximately 1 billion US dollars.
- Binance Bitcoin Holdings: Approximately 685,000 to 687,000 coins
The range of $78,000 to $79,000 is receiving attention.
In addition to spot funds, derivative positions are also increasing market sensitivity. The scale of outstanding Bitcoin contracts has recently exceeded $10 billion, indicating that leveraged trading still accounts for a significant proportion during this round of rebound. Binance
Currently, the market regards the range of $78,000 to $79,000 as a key support area for Bitcoin. If this range is maintained, it indicates that buyers are still taking profits; if it breaks down, prices may further fall to around $77,000, and even test the $74,000 level. Whether the large traders („whales“) will switch to actual selling, and whether the capital flow of ETF can continue, will become the two most closely watched indicators in the coming period.
