Bitcoin has fallen back to around $76,800. After breaking below $78,000, the short-term trend continues to be under pressure. Rising oil prices, unrelieved inflationary pressures in the United States, and increasing yields on U.S. Treasury bonds are weakening market demand for high-volatility assets.
From the market perspective, BTC once rose to $77,500, before falling back to around the intraday low of $76,800. Although there was a slight rebound during the day, the price remains below the 20-day moving average of $78,601, indicating that the short-term selling pressure has not yet significantly eased.
Around $76,000 serves as a short-term support level.
On the 4-hour chart, BTC has fallen below the Supertrend indicator, with the corresponding resistance level at around $79,060. The Relative Strength Index RSI has dropped to 34.25, approaching the oversold range, indicating weak short-term momentum.
The current market is primarily focused on the range of $76,000 to $76,500. This area also corresponds to the liquidity-intensive zone on the CoinGlass one-week clearing heat map. If the price effectively falls below $76,000, it may then test $75,000, after which the market's attention will shift to the range of $72,000 to $74,000.
- The 50-day moving average is approximately $70,673.
- The 200-day moving average is approximately $70,058.
- The 100-day moving average is approximately $66,915.
This means that the current pullback is more of a correction during the upward trend, rather than a complete breakdown of the medium to long-term structure.
Oil prices and inflation expectations suppress risk appetite
This callback occurred before the United States was about to release a new round of consumer inflation data. Previously released producer price data exceeded expectations. According to reports from The Associated Press, U.S. wholesale prices rose by 0.4% month-on-month and 5.4% year-on-year in August, which prompted the market to re-evaluate the subsequent policy path of the Federal Reserve.
Reuters data shows that interest rate futures once reflected a probability of about 67% for a rate hike. MarketWatch noted that after the release of producer inflation data, this expectation briefly rose to 72%. Rising borrowing costs usually suppress risk assets such as Bitcoin, as investors can obtain higher returns from government bonds.
At the same time, conflicts in the Middle East have pushed up crude oil prices. Brent crude oil has remained above $100 per barrel, and at one point during the week it approached $110. Rising energy prices may continue to drive up transportation and production costs, making it more difficult for the United States to bring inflation back down to its 2% target.
The sell-off in global bond markets continues. Reports indicate that the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has approached 5%, which further reduces the attractiveness of high-risk assets.
The weekly closing price at $80,000 becomes the focus.
Analysts are focusing on whether the weekly chart of Bitcoin will fall below the 50-week exponential moving average. Crypto analyst Ted Pillows indicates that if the weekly chart closes below this indicator, BTC could further decline to the range of $72,000 to $74,000.
Trader Daan Crypto Trades stated that the new short positions around $78,000 are currently still in a profitable state, and the funding rates for perpetual contracts have begun to turn negative. This usually indicates that the market sentiment is bearish in the short term.
However, if Bitcoin manages to regain the level of $78,000 and further break through the resistance around $79,060, short covering could drive prices back up to the range of $79,800 to $80,600. CoinGlass indicates that there is a significant concentration of leveraged positions around $80,000, which could become a focal point for short-term price battles.
Next, U.S. consumer inflation data and the Federal Reserve's meeting from September 15th to 16th will become the main macroeconomic indicators for monitoring the crypto market.
