After U.S. inflation data exceeded expectations, the interest rate market quickly adjusted its pricing. Bitcoin once rose to $79,837 on Friday, before falling back to around $77,438. As the increase narrowed, the golden cross signal that had just appeared on the daily chart also disappeared again.
After the announcement of CPI, bets on interest rate hikes have heated up.
In August, the U.S. core CPI monthly rate recorded 0.3%, higher than the market's expectation of 0.2%. Following the release of the data, bets in the interest rate market for the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points next week significantly increased.
- CME FedWatch It was shown that the probability of a rate hike once reached about 69%.
- A few hours later, this probability rose to 86.5%.
- Risky assets therefore face greater pressure.
After the market re-adopted a more hawkish policy path, high-risk assets such as Bitcoin and tech stocks generally faced pressure to decline. Bitcoin opened at $76,529 on that day, rose briefly during the session, then turned down, hitting a low of $76,040 before returning to around $77,438.
The golden cross on the daily chart appeared briefly before disappearing.
Earlier on Friday, Bitcoin's 50-day exponential moving average briefly broke above its 200-day exponential moving average, forming what is commonly referred to in the market as a "golden cross." This signal is generally seen as an indication of a strengthening medium-term trend and is also one of the technical patterns that markets pay close attention to.
However, since the two moving averages are currently quite close to each other, price fluctuations during trading hours are sufficient to cause the signal to switch back and forth repeatedly. As Bitcoin fell from near $80,000, the 50-day moving average once again dropped below the 200-day moving average, and the daily golden cross did not hold until later in the same day.
The article mentions that such repetitions are not uncommon. The golden cross itself is a lagging indicator, based on historical prices. When two moving averages are very close to each other, significant single-day fluctuations can cause the signal to change multiple times within the same trading day.
Short-term cycles still maintain a relatively strong structure.
Although the daily chart signals are fluctuating, the golden cross pattern on the 4-hour chart has not yet been broken. The 50-week moving average is still above the 200-week moving average, indicating that the short-term upward trend formed since late August has not yet completely ended.
However, the short-term momentum has cooled down somewhat. Reports indicate that the 4-hour RSI has dropped to 43.3, returning to a weaker range; the 4-hour ADX is at 25.1, only slightly above the common dividing line for a valid trend, indicating that the strength of the intraday trend is clearly weaker than that on the daily time frame.
In contrast, the daily chart ADX is still at 45, indicating that the larger-scale trend has not been completely broken. That is to say, although the golden cross on the daily chart has temporarily become invalid, the overall trend of Bitcoin has not immediately turned bearish; it is merely a short-term decline under stronger macroeconomic pressure.
