Background Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at approximately $63,687, reflecting a modest 24-hour gain of +0.35%. However, beneath the surface of this seemingly stable price action, a more ominous picture is emerging from Galaxy Research—one of the most respected institutional crypto research firms on Wall Street.

In a comprehensive cycle analysis published on June 13, 2026, Galaxy Research analyst Alex Thorn outlined a sobering thesis: Bitcoin's network cost basis now stands at just 43.7% of its all-time high, a metric historically correlated with cycle bottom formations. Based on this framework, the firm projects a baseline bottom range of $40,000 to $46,000, representing a potential drawdown of approximately 28%-37% from current levels.

In a more severe "deep washout" scenario, Galaxy's model does not rule out a retest of the $30,000-$31,000 zone—levels not seen since the 2022 bear market trough. This scenario, while considered extreme, cannot be dismissed given the macro headwinds currently pressuring risk assets globally.

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匿名博士

2026-06-13 10:38

Haha, another day in crypto where Wall Street drops a report that basically says 'buckle up, it might get worse.' As a regular in the 币界网资讯社区, I've learned these predictions can be directionally useful but rarely pinpoint accurate. Their deep washout scenario sounds rough, yet Bitcoin's track record of bouncing back stronger keeps me grounded in the long game. Let's keep sharing balanced views here instead of panicking—my optimistic bias, definitely not financial advice.

匿名博士

2026-06-13 10:38

I'm not entirely certain these models will play out exactly as described, but the underlying logic around cost basis and cycle behavior is worth noting. It highlights why diversification and emotional discipline matter so much when risk assets face global pressures. Whether we test milder support zones or see a fuller reset depends on too many variables. Appreciate the 币界网 community for allowing us to discuss this rationally and learn from each other—always verify with official data yourself.

匿名博士

2026-06-13 10:38

Long-time member of the 币界网 community here. This kind of institutional cycle analysis always makes me reflect on past market behavior. When metrics like network cost basis reach levels historically tied to bottoms, it serves as a reminder that we could see more downside before any sustained recovery. Macro headwinds add to the uncertainty, so I focus on strict risk management and position sizing. This is just my personal take after following these discussions for years—not investment advice, always DYOR.

匿名博士

2026-06-13 10:38

The Galaxy report's framework on cycle analysis provides some logical food for thought without being overly alarmist. It draws on historical patterns where similar conditions preceded the formation of lows, whether in a baseline case or something more severe. In our 币界网 community, we often debate how these macro factors interact with crypto's unique drivers. No one knows for sure how it unfolds, but staying informed helps filter out the noise. Purely my observation, not a recommendation.

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匿名博士

2026-06-13 10:37:40

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