Foreign media reports that the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, but the hawkish signals from the meeting have led to differing opinions on the future of Bitcoin. Following the announcement, Bitcoin continued to fluctuate narrowly around $64,000, outperforming declining US stocks, while US Treasury yields rose.
The voting results were hawkish.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept interest rates between 3.5% and 3.75% at the current meeting, but the decision was passed by a 9-3 vote. Three regional Fed officials supported an immediate rate hike. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh reiterated at a press conference that inflation above 2% is unacceptable, further reinforcing market expectations that high interest rates will persist for longer.
Andrei Grachev, managing partner at DWF Labs, believes this outcome is not favorable for digital assets. According to him, a tighter policy environment means less liquidity, higher holding costs for leveraged and carry trade funds, and institutional positions may shift more defensively.
The disagreement focuses on subsequent variables
Sygnum Bank investment strategist Can-Luca Köymen, however, held a relatively moderate view. He stated that maintaining interest rates unchanged, coupled with hawkish rhetoric, was largely in line with expectations and did not indicate a sudden deterioration in the macroeconomic environment, but rather that restrictive policies might continue for longer.
He pointed out that the institution's bullish view on crypto assets is not based on the premise that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates soon, but rather on the premise that inflationary pressures remain within a controllable range. What's more worthwhile to observe next is the trend of oil prices, and whether ETF inflows and on-chain purchases will continue.
The September meeting becomes the next hurdle.
Bitget's chief analyst, Ryan Lee, believes the market's focus has shifted from "whether there will be an interest rate cut this year" to "whether there might be an interest rate hike next." In his view, if repricing continues, interest rate-sensitive technology assets, such as the Nasdaq 100, may be the first to face pressure.
Despite differing opinions, many analysts do not directly predict an immediate sharp drop or rapid rise in Bitcoin prices. The main disagreement lies in whether the pressure will immediately translate into the crypto market, or whether it will become clearer around the time of the September interest rate meeting. Currently, federal funds rate futures have priced in approximately a 72% probability of a September rate hike.
