According to foreign media reports, Raoul Pal, founder of Real Vision and former Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager, believes that while the market's attention is currently focused on mainstream assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, the next phase of more resilient opportunities may emerge in the underlying crypto infrastructure sector.
Judgment based on global liquidity
Pal's core framework revolves around global liquidity. He uses major central bank balance sheets, G20 money supply, and foreign exchange reserves as a composite indicator to observe the scale of funds available for inflow into risky assets.
According to him, over the past decade, Bitcoin prices have maintained a high degree of synchronicity with this global liquidity indicator, with a correlation of approximately 90%. His judgment is that as liquidity conditions in major economies ease, new funds typically flow gradually to riskier assets, and the crypto market is often at the end of this chain.
Focus on Layer 2 and Dedicated Infrastructure
The opportunity he was referring to was not that Bitcoin would continue to double at its current level, but rather that market funds would further shift towards infrastructure assets with more diversified holdings and lower institutional participation after the rise in mainstream assets.
The areas mentioned in the article include Layer 2 networks, decentralized physical infrastructure projects (DePIN), and application-specific blockchains. These types of assets typically lie between the underlying public blockchains and end-user applications, and have not historically been a focus for mainstream investors.
On-chain signal synchronization
According to its framework, the typical rotation sequence in the crypto market throughout its cycles is as follows: Bitcoin starts first, attracting institutional funds; then funds spread to Ethereum and large-cap altcoins; and then some funds flow to small and medium-sized infrastructure assets that were previously overlooked during the bear market.
- Long-term holders' accumulated holdings have risen to a six-year high.
- Bitcoin exchange reserves decreased by approximately $23 billion in 90 days.
- The LTH/STH market capitalization ratio is close to its historical low.
Pal believes that the simultaneous appearance of these signals indicates that the market may be in the early stages of a new upward phase. The article does not provide a specific list of tokens, focusing instead on the infrastructure sector, which has not yet been fully covered by mainstream capital.
