Bitcoin rebounded to around $64,600 on July 30, recovering some of the losses following the Federal Reserve meeting, but it has not yet broken out of the consolidation range of the past few days. Currently, three main factors are suppressing the market: the escalating conflict between the US and Iran, the Federal Reserve maintaining a tight stance, and the US Senate delaying the passage of the Clarity Act.
The article's data shows that Bitcoin previously dipped to $62,383 before rebounding to above $64,000. However, the $65,000 to $66,500 range still presents significant resistance, indicating that buying is more defensive and has not driven a new round of upward trend.
The situation in the Middle East has fueled risk aversion.
Following renewed clashes between the US and Iran, market concerns about energy supplies and Red Sea shipping have intensified. Oil prices, after surging 6.6% in the previous trading session, remained above $84 per barrel. Higher energy prices typically boost inflation expectations and also raise US Treasury yields, thereby diminishing the attractiveness of high-risk assets.
At the same time, US stocks weakened significantly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.2%, the S&P 500 fell 1.5%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.7%. In contrast, although Bitcoin was under pressure, it did not continue to fall below $62,000, indicating that its short-term performance still has some resilience.
The Federal Reserve maintained a hawkish stance.
The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate in the 3.5% to 3.75% range at its July meeting, in line with market expectations. However, Chairman Kevin Warsh made it clear that the inflation target remains 2%, and there is no so-called "flexible target."
More notably, three Federal Open Market Committee members supported a 25-basis-point rate hike. This implies that if oil prices drive inflation back up, further policy tightening is still possible. For the crypto market, the unchanged interest rate itself did not bring significant benefits; the tightening stance actually dampened expectations of further easing.
Legislative delay weakens rebound catalyst
In addition to macroeconomic factors, the US Senate's delay in processing the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" has also deprived the market of a policy catalyst that could have boosted sentiment. Senators are now focusing more on the Russia sanctions and federal appointments, further narrowing the timeframe for the bill to move forward before the August 8 recess.
The bill originally aimed to delineate the regulatory responsibilities of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for the digital asset market. If passed, it would provide exchanges, token issuers, and investors with clearer federal rules. While the delay has not directly altered the Bitcoin trading environment, it has dampened expectations of improved institutional confidence amid rising macroeconomic pressures.
ETFs are still seeing inflows of funds.
Cross-asset performance indicates that the market is indeed leaning towards defense, but there is currently insufficient evidence to suggest that funds are shifting massively from crypto assets to gold. Spot gold remained around $4,062 per ounce, while US gold futures rose 0.7%, but silver underperformed, and precious metals did not show a consistent strength.
In contrast, Bitcoin spot ETFs continued to see inflows. Data from Farside Investors shows that on July 29th, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $32.1 million, with BlackRock IBIT attracting $89.8 million. While this amount isn't large, it indicates that institutional funds haven't completely withdrawn during this round of selling pressure.
From a short-term perspective, the market is focusing on the leveraged area around $64,900 to $65,200. If the price re-enters this area, it could trigger short covering and drive the price to test the $66,000 to $66,500 range.
Below, there is another area of liquidity concentrated around $63,000 to $63,300. If $64,000 is breached, the price may first retrace to this area, then test $62,000, or even further down to the psychological level of $60,000.
