Analysts CryptoQuant and Darkfost indicated that as of the week ending August 30, Bitcoin had achieved a market value increase of over $4.6 billion. This change occurred after BTC rebounded from around $63,000 at the beginning of August and briefly surpassed $81,000, indicating that on-chain activity and holding costs are once again on the rise.
$4.6 billion corresponds to increased costs
The market value is calculated based on the price of each Bitcoin at its most recent on-chain transfer, which is different from the traditional market value valuation method that uses the latest market price. Typically, when older coins are transferred at higher prices, this indicator tends to rise, and therefore is often seen as one of the signals that capital is re-entering the market.
However, Darkfost believes that this one-week change is not sufficient to confirm that liquidity has begun to recover sustainably. Data shows that Bitcoin's 30-day average market value growth rate is currently only 0.4%, indicating that the overall trend remains weak.
Not all of it comes from new funds.
The report indicates that a rise in market value does not necessarily mean an equal amount of new capital is flowing directly into the market. This indicator can also be affected by the turnover of existing token holders; in particular, investors who sell to stop losses during a downward trend will create new UTXO and re-record the on-chain prices at a lower cost.
This means that the increase of $4.6 billion cannot simply be attributed to new off-exchange buyers, but it still reflects a rebound in market trading activity, as well as the formation of new holding cost ranges.
As previously mentioned, in the week up to August 23, Bitcoin's weekly increase in US dollars reached 14,775 dollars, with a weekly gain of 23.5%. This rebound was driven not only by spot demand but also by short covering and momentum trading.
ETF Capital flow continues to support the rebound
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded net inflows for 7 consecutive trading days before August 25, attracting a total of approximately $2.57 billion, providing quantifiable demand support for the spot market.
- Net inflow for 7 consecutive days before August 25th
- Cumulative net inflow of approximately $2.57 billion
- IBIT Daily inflow of $284.4 million
In addition to capital flow factors, the weakening of the US dollar and concerns related to US fiscal policy have also increased market attention to scarce assets. Bitcoin once rose above $81,200 on August 25, reaching a new high since mid-May, before giving back some of its gains. By August 30, BTC was trading at $78,024, with a 24-hour increase of about 0.6%.
Pay attention to the 30-day growth rate in the future.
Darkfost believes that the current trend of market value is similar to some stages in the later period of the previous bear market, but based solely on historical patterns, it is not yet possible to determine that the market has entered a new upward cycle.
CryptoQuant The CEO, Ki Young Ju, previously stated that in the past two years, Bitcoin has achieved a cumulative market value increase of $467 billion, but the price increase has not corresponded with a similar expansion. This means that in order to drive even stronger gains in the future, the market may need a larger and more sustained inflow of capital.
Next, the market will continue to monitor three indicators: whether the realized market value can grow for several consecutive weeks, whether the 30-day average growth rate will increase, and whether the capital flow of US spot ETF can continue. If these conditions do not continue to improve, Bitcoin may still face fluctuations around $81,000.
