Foreign media reports that market maker Wintermute in its latest market article believes that many investors have been concerned about missing the previous round of Bitcoin's rise, but the current consolidation does not necessarily mean the end of the trend; rather, it may be a buildup before the next phase of movement. The article attributes this resilience to some funds gradually shifting from the US stock market, especially from the crowded trading sectors of AI, to crypto assets.
Rapid rebound after strong employment data
The article mentions that after the latest U.S. employment data exceeded expectations, the market once again bet that the Federal Reserve would maintain a tight stance, putting pressure on gold, government bonds, and tech stocks. Bitcoin also fell below $80,000 from around $82,400, but quickly regained its losses and recorded a gain of about 3.45% that week.
Wintermute believes that this behavior indicates that the crypto market has not simply followed the fluctuations of risk assets recently. Their judgment is that some funds are withdrawing from the U.S. stock sector, which has been on a long upward trend, and turning towards Bitcoin and Ethereum, causing crypto assets to exhibit relative independence during certain periods.
The drawdown is shallower than in the previous rounds.
The article states that a common reason for caution in the market is that prices are already high, and one should wait for a deeper correction. However, Wintermute believes that this current cycle is different from the downward phases in 2018 and 2022.
According to their statistics, it has been about 340 days since the last historical high. Compared to previous bear markets, Bitcoin usually experiences a decline of over 75% from its peak at this stage and remains at lower levels for a longer period of time. However, this time the maximum drawdown was approximately 50%, which is significantly less than in the previous rounds.
Wintermute attributes this difference to institutional funds entering the market earlier, especially through spot trading. ETF There has been a continuous allocation of Bitcoin. The article states that in the past three weeks, related funds have seen a cumulative inflow of nearly $1 billion, with last Thursday's single-day inflow being the largest since January of this year.
$82,000 and $72,000 mark key levels
For the subsequent trend, Wintermute identifies two key price levels.
- $82,000: If it becomes a valid entry point, funds from external observers may accelerate their entry into the market.
- $72,000: If it falls below that level and there is a significant outflow of ETF, the bullish trend may be interrupted.
The article also mentions that as Bitcoin and Ethereum led the gains, some funds have begun to shift towards tokens with higher risks. Over the past week, UNI and ARB have seen gains of nearly 40%. The activity of tokens related to AI, such as TAO and RENDER, has also picked up, with market attention focused on events around December.
Wintermute believes that an important observation point in the coming days of this month is the U.S. Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) to be released on September 11th. This set of data will affect the market's judgment of interest rate paths and also test whether funds will continue to flow from stocks to crypto assets.
