Mike Rowe gave a blunt summary of the shortage of skilled workers in the United States: The country is losing technicians at a faster rate than it is replacing them.
"For every five technicians who retire this year, only two are replaced," Luo said at the Pro Accelerate Labor Development Forum. "Five leave, and two come in. I don't care how you vote. I don't care about your political stance. Mathematics doesn't care either."
The host of “Dirty Jobs” has expressed this view in various ways over the years. However, at a Ford event, Luo’s warnings to welders, electricians, and other skilled workers sparked a broader discussion. Among the attendees were Education Minister Linda McMahon and Michael Duffy, the Under Secretary for Procurement and Logistics of the U.S. Department of War. The topic of discussion was: where exactly is the problem when the United States views college education and vocational training as opposing paths?
The viewpoint that gradually emerged from this discussion is not just that "the United States needs more skilled workers." More importantly, the terms "blue-collar" and "white-collar" may no longer be sufficient to describe the types of jobs employers need to fill, nor are they adequate to describe the education that workers need to receive. Luo suggests that perhaps "purple-collar" could be used to describe these roles.
The arithmetic of a shrinking labor force
Luo believes that the shortage of skilled labor can no longer be ignored as a common recruitment challenge. He says that this shortage is “real,” “widespread,” “continuing to expand,” and “quite dangerous.”
Part of the reason lies in the demographic structure. Experienced technicians are retiring continuously, while there are fewer young people entering fields such as welding, electrical work, piping, advanced manufacturing, and industrial maintenance.
“How long are you willing to wait for the toilet to be fixed?” he asked. “How long are you willing to wait for the light to turn on again after you press the switch?”
This gap is also increasingly extending to the manufacturing industry and national defense. Taking the submarine industry as an example, Luo mentioned that at a time when the United States is attempting to expand production capacity, there is a shortage of welders and electricians.
Luo said that he received a call from BlueForge Alliance in his capacity as the CEO of the mikeroweWORKS Foundation. This alliance is responsible for coordinating 16,000 separate companies, which together undertake the task of delivering nuclear-powered submarines. “These people called me and said, ‘Hey, we’re having a lot of trouble finding welders and electricians. Can you help?’ I asked, ‘I don’t know. How many do you need?’” The number of people required is quite substantial: BlueForge estimates that in the next 10 years, the next generation of submarine fleets will need about 100,000 workers for key manufacturing positions.
When asked where these future workers would be found, Luo's answer was: "They are in the eighth grade."
In Luo's view, that is precisely where the problem lies. Enterprises across the entire economy, including Ford, General Motors, large retailers, manufacturers, and defense contractors, are all competing for workers who require years of training to be competent for their positions. "You can't start recruiting from eighth grade," he said.
Linda McMahon's answer
McMahon agrees with Luo's premise, but she is more concerned about the institutional changes required to establish a larger talent pipeline. She said that the Ministry of Education has been working with the Ministry of Labor to increase the emphasis on labor training and to speed up the path to skilled positions.
Her preferred model has been in place since before graduation. She says that high schools should cooperate more closely with community colleges, technical schools, and vocational programs, so that students can obtain both a high school diploma and directly usable qualification certificates upon graduation.
For example, students can first learn electrical skills and then obtain certifications in areas such as heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) or welding. The purpose is to enable young people to enter the labor market more quickly, avoid unnecessary costs, and continue to accumulate skills thereafter.
McMahon also called for schools to introduce hands-on learning earlier, including virtual welding and electronics courses, to make technical work more tangible and attractive to younger students.
But her most pointed view is directed at parents and the hierarchy of status that has formed around higher education. She believes that skilled trades should not be portrayed as a fallback option for students who did not perform well in college.
“This shouldn’t just be a case of ‘Oh, my child isn’t smart enough to go to college, so they’ll probably have to become an electrician or a plumber,’” McMahon said.
"Purple" workforce
Luo further advanced the discussion. He said that the problem is not just that too many people are leading students away from the skilled trades industry, but also that the United States still imagines intellectual and physical work as two separate worlds.
He questions the practicality of labels such as “blue-collar” and “white-collar,” especially in places like Detroit and his hometown of Baltimore, where these identities are deeply ingrained. Perhaps, he says, the next generation of jobs will have a “grayer, or perhaps a purpler” tone to them.
Subsequently, Luo raised his smartphone, treating it as a symbol of this change.
“This is my diploma in the humanities,” he said, adding that a smartphone connected to the internet allows anyone to access “99% of the known information.” He mentioned that he recently watched a lecture from MIT for free from within his hotel room.
What he means is not that education has become obsolete, but rather that the ambition for knowledge is no longer confined to campuses, nor is it exclusive to students who follow traditional academic paths. At the same time, he believes that those with degrees from prestigious universities should not be isolated from the value of learning practical skills.
Recalling that political statement "America needs fewer philosophers and more welders," Luo offered his own version: "Our country needs more philosophers who can produce even welds, as well as more welders who can discuss Stoicism and possess critical thinking," he said.
New industrial combinations
Tamiflu links this argument to the changes in the manufacturing and defense industries. He says that new companies within the defense industry base are combining technology with manufacturing, a model that does not fit into the old classifications of labor forces.
He said that what is truly needed are people with skills, rather than those with a specific occupational label; at the same time, there is also a need for "flexible factories and flexible labor forces" to meet the ever-changing industrial demands.
This makes Luo's warnings about population structure more than just slogans about empty seats in vocational schools. The entire discussion is actually advocating for a different level of education: future welders might be self-learners who can attend lectures at MIT for free, and future engineers may understand the workshop environment, with skilled work no longer being seen as a substitute for a serious intellectual life.
Luo implies that the future workforce may not consist of blue-collar or white-collar workers, but rather of those classified as "purple-collar."
Fortune In this report, generative artificial intelligence was used as a research tool. The editor verified the accuracy of the information before publication.
