Morgan Stanley has set a target price of $300 per share for SpaceX. Analyst Adam Jonas reiterated this view in a report on Sunday and maintained a 'overweight' rating.
On October 5th, the stock price of SpaceX closed at $171.09, representing a rise of 7.63%. This means that there is approximately 75% room for increase from the current level to reach the target price of $300. At the time Morgan Stanley made this assessment, Elon Musk had just confirmed discussions between SpaceX and TSMC regarding the Terafab chip project.
Also please read: SpaceX Stock Price Forecast: Needham targets $250, Bernstein targets $248, BofA targets $235
SpaceX Target price of $300 and explanation for negotiations with TSMC
As of press time, the stock price of SpaceX reached $172.21 during night trading, and at one point during the session it rose from $158.62 to $172.47. The trading volume was approximately 134.4 million shares, which is significantly higher than the average of 91.3 million shares. The target price of $300 is also notably higher than the year-long consensus expectation of $227.44 and the 52-week high of $225.64.
Why does Morgan Stanley maintain a target price of $300 for SpaceX?
Adam Jonas represents:
SpaceX Negotiations with TSMC Bring New Highlights in Chip Industry
On October 3, Musk confirmed on X that the chip joint venture project Terafab, supported by SpaceX and Tesla, is in early discussions with TSMC. This factory will produce chips for SpaceX, Tesla, and xAI.
Elon Musk stated:
"It's still just in the discussion stage at the moment, but there could be results."
There are currently no contracts, timelines, or amounts in place, and TSMC has also not made any comments. For now, the negotiations between SpaceX and TSMC are more of an additional positive factor rather than a factor that truly depends on the SpaceX stock price target.
Starship Flight 15 is the next important test.
Jonas represents:
"We believe that in the future, the release of AI products, the progress of Starship, and the continuation of more neocloud contracts at a pricing of $30 to $50 per watt will all be upward-catalyzing factors, which may drive the stock price closer to our target price of $300 per share."
Next, there will be several events. For example, Starship Flight 15 is expected to take place in late October or early November. Jonas indicates that if the spacecraft recovery is successful, this could become the biggest positive catalyst since IPO. The third-quarter financial report is expected to be released around November 3rd. Any of the above events could lead discussions surrounding the target price of SpaceX in different directions.
The earnings per share for the past 12 months are still negative at $1.10, therefore the target price of $300 for SpaceX is based on profits that will be realized in several years. TD Cowen began covering this stock last week with a 'buy' rating and a target price of $200, which also sets a lower threshold for discussions regarding the target price of SpaceX. For those who follow Morgan Stanley's SpaceX perspective, both Starship and AI transactions need to proceed as planned now, as the stock price of SpaceX could fluctuate significantly depending on the outcome of any test flight.
