Bitcoin has been in a downward trend since October. October is traditionally a month when this leading cryptocurrency performs relatively well, and the market often refers to it as "_Uptober". However, experts warn that October should not be regarded as a reliable temporary bottom for Bitcoin, as it may continue to decline in the future.

According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin once fell to $80,427 in the past week, and its current trading price is slightly below $83,000, representing a 4.1% decline over the past seven days. On the prediction platform Myriad under Dastan, the parent company of Decrypt, users believe that the probability of Bitcoin closing above $82,000 this week is 79%, while the probability of closing above $84,000 is only 28%.

Bitwise Europe Senior Researcher Luke Deans to Decrypt: "From a market structure perspective, the $83,000 range is still an interesting level. This range combines the average cost base of ETF as well as previous higher technical highs, and it has been repeatedly tested over the past few weeks."

Where is the support level?

Bitcoin fell below $83,000 in early trading on Thursday and is currently attempting to rebound. Deans indicates that the market's reaction to this will be "very informative." If Bitcoin struggles to regain that level, then lower structural support targets should be considered.

The founder and chief quantitative researcher of company Charlie Quant Lab, Ananda Banerjee, stated to Decrypt that he believes the strongest support level is at $77,000. This conclusion is based on on on-chain indicators, which show that a considerable portion of Bitcoin supply was purchased at this price point. Deans also agrees that the average purchase price of active investors, namely True Market Mean, is close to $77,000.

However, Deans also noted a lower support level at $74,000, which corresponds to the cost base for short-term holders (Short - Term Holder Cost Basis), that is, the average purchase price of newer market participants. The 200-day moving average is also at $72,000, and he stated that this provides an independent technical reference beyond the on-chain indicators.

Deans to Decrypt means: 'From this perspective, even if Bitcoin experiences a significant decline from its current level, it may still remain within what we consider to be a constructive risk appetite structure. If it falls back to the range of $72,000 to $77,000, that would indicate a strong retest of the broader conversion range.'

He stated that if this area can be held, the range that previously acted as resistance to the Bitcoin trend will turn into support, which would be a positive signal. However, if this area cannot be defended, it could "damage the current market structure."

Nevertheless, Bitcoin attempted to break through the $87,000 mark at the beginning of this week but was unsuccessful. Analysts noted that this failure "was mainly driven by futures positions rather than spot demand." They added, "Spot demand is still the missing link." They pointed out that during the week from September 28 to October 2, there was a net inflow of $241.1 million in US spot Bitcoin, compared to $2.39 billion in the previous week. "On average, investors returned to breakeven for the first time since January, and at this level, capital inflows tend to slow down historically," they said.

Sygnum Bank Investment Strategist Can - Luca K ö ymen also agrees that lower spot trading volumes are suppressing the price trend of Bitcoin. Decrypt

Analysts believe that the consolidation range for Bitcoin is between $84,000 and this year's opening price of $87,722. They indicate that the CPI data for September, which was released on October 14th, as well as the ETF rebound in capital flows, may bring an end to this range of fluctuations.

According to the tracking data from ETF, on Wednesday, Bitcoin experienced a net outflow of $484.9 million, which is the largest single-day outflow since June 25th. Among them, the IBIT sector had the largest outflow, amounting to $207.7 million, followed closely by the Fidelity sector with an outflow of $105.1 million. Experts believe that for the "Uptober" process to proceed smoothly, this trend needs to reverse; however, on Thursday, these funds further flowed out by $244 million, and the trend remains downward.

Uptober Is it over yet?

So, has Uptober come to an end? Most of the experts interviewed by Decrypt are reluctant to declare Uptober invalid based on just a week of decline. However, they remind us that investment decisions should not be made based on overly hyped-up months, but rather more attention should be paid to fundamentals.

Nansen Senior Research Analyst Jake Kennis said to Decrypt: "Historical data supports a stronger performance in October. Since 2013, the median return rate of Bitcoin in October has been around 14%, and in the past 13 Octobers, there have been 10 months with gains."

"But in the end, liquidity, position size, macroeconomic environment, and underlying demand are more important than any specific date," he added.