U.S. Treasury bonds rebound, tech stocks decline; crowded short-selling trades in bonds suffer setbacks
PR Newswire
58m ago
Ai Focus
Last week, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell by about 17 basis points, and the Nasdaq 100 index tumbled 5.5%, recording the largest decline for the same week since the tariff turmoil in April 2025. Bloomberg reported that this change disappointed investors who had heavily bet on further declines in the bond market; the selling of AI-related tech stocks served as a catalyst, and Treasury bonds once again exhibited their safe-haven characteristics.
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New York, October 19th / PRNewswire / -- According to Stock Preachers News Commentary, Bloomberg reported that last week the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell by about 17 basis points, while the Nasdaq 100 index declined by 5.5%, both recording their largest weekly declines since the tariff turmoil in April 2025. This trend caught investors who had bet heavily that bond prices would continue to fall off guard, as in the previous seven months, the yield on 10-year bonds had been rising all the way to its highest level in over two decades.

Companies related to the market that have made progress this week include: iShares 20+, Year Treasury Bond ETF ( NASDAQ : TLT ), iShares 7-10, Year Treasury Bond ETF ( NASDAQ : IEF ), ProShares UltraShort 20+, Year Treasury ( NYSE Arca : TBT ), Invesco QQQ Trust ( NASDAQ : QQQ ), as well as CoreWeave, Inc ( NASDAQ : CRWV ).

The trigger was the selling off of technology stocks related to AI. As stock prices fell, U.S. Treasury bonds began to exhibit characteristics again of safe-haven assets; however, in the past few years, this role has not been stable, partly because oil price-driven selling-offs have sometimes caused both stocks and bonds to decline simultaneously. Bloomberg reported that trend-following fund commodity trading advisors ( CTA ) had previously established short positions in U.S. bond futures at extremely bearish levels, and last week they exited these bets, providing further momentum for the rebound in bonds.

Interest rate expectations have also seen sharp fluctuations. Bloomberg reports that traders once priced in a 50% probability of a Fed interest rate hike in October, and they still expect another hike by the end of this year, as well as one more in 2027. Meanwhile, AI construction is also relying on the bond market: Investment-grade companies, led by large technology firms, have issued approximately $1.7 trillion in bonds this year, which is about a 29% increase from a year ago.

James Assi, Portfolio Manager at Marlborough Investment Management Company ( Marlborough Investment Management ), told Bloomberg: "To borrow Mark Twain's words, the rumors about the death of U.S. Treasury bonds have been greatly exaggerated."

Charts of bonds and tech stocks tell this story in real time. You can obtain the Stock Preachers guide for free at stockpreachers.com to learn how to interpret these charts.

The following are the developments in other industries in the market this week:

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ : TLT)

Long-term bonds played a major driving role. According to Stock Analysis data, this fund, which tracks U.S. Treasury bonds with a remaining maturity of over 20 years, rose by 2.65% last week, from $77.98 at the close on October 9th to $80.05 on October 16th. The fund manages assets of approximately $47 billion and has a fee rate of 0.15%. Long-term bonds are most sensitive to changes in yield, hence they led the gains.

iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ : IEF)

This intermediate-term bond fund rose by 1.14% during the same period, from $89.40 to $90.42, managing assets of approximately $41 billion. Some strategists prefer intermediate-term duration as a hedging tool. It was found that between 2000 and 2020, 10-year U.S. bonds continued to provide positive returns during stock market pullbacks; fixed-income strategist Afonso Borges stated that intermediate-term U.S. bonds “should once again become an effective portfolio hedging tool,” according to Bloomberg.

ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (NYSE Arca : TBT)

For investors on the other side of the trade, last week was a blow. The fund aimed to achieve twice the reverse return of ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index's one-day performance, but last week it fell by 5.07%, dropping from $42.05 to $39.92. It should be noted that returns held for more than one day may differ significantly from this one-day target.

This fund intuitively reflects the performance of short-selling U.S. Treasury bond trades. Its largest decline occurred on October 15th, when the 10-year yield fell by 10.5 basis points, and on that day, the fund lost 2.94%, according to TheStreet.

This type of leveraged fund requires a precise timing for entry and exit. The free guide at Stock Preachers introduces the basic chart analysis techniques that traders use to determine when to enter and exit the market; for more details, see stockpreachers.com.

Invesco QQQ Trust ( NASDAQ : QQQ )

This Invesco fund, which tracks the NASDAQ 100 index, fell by 5.52% last week, dropping from $751.27 to $709.80, in line with the 5.5% decline of the index. On October 14th, after a report on inflation that exceeded expectations drove up yields, the fund fell by 1.97%; on October 17th, with the resumption of selling of AI, it fell another 2.50%.

CoreWeave, Inc. (NASDAQ : CRWV)

CoreWeave has become the clearest indicator for the market to measure the debt pressure of AI. The company's stock price fell 25.21% last week, from $82.08 to $61.39, with a further decline of 15.46% on October 14th and another 11.91% on October 16th. The Motley Fool reported that its five-year credit default swap (CDS) spread rose to a record high of about 1,195 basis points on October 15th, and the yield on its bonds maturing in October 2031 soared above 16%, due to the company's obligations related to loans and leases amounting to approximately $52 billion.

Natixis North America John Briggs, head of U.S. interest rate strategy at John Briggs, told Bloomberg: "If investors see that bonds related to AI are depreciating, they will lose interest in buying new bonds."

Want to detect the next turning point in bonds, tech stocks, or AI trades on the chart ahead of time? You can download a free chart reading guide and the The Roadmap market report at stockpreachers.com.

Contact Information:

Media contact: [ email protected ]

This article is an independent news commentary. Stock Preachers is wholly owned and operated by Market Equities Limited (“MEL”), which is a company registered under Irish law. MEL has not received any compensation from any of the fund sponsors or companies mentioned in this article. MEL and its owners, operators, directors, and related parties currently do not hold any shares in the funds or companies mentioned in this article, but retain the right to buy or sell such shares at any time without prior notice. The weekly price changes are based on data from Stock Analysis for the period from the close on October 9, 2026, to the close on October 16, 2026, excluding dividends. The information is sourced from fund sponsors, published reports, and third-party data considered reliable, but no guarantee is provided for its accuracy. Investing in securities carries risks, including the possibility of losing part or all of the investment. This document is governed by Irish law.

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