According to CoinMeta, as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) approaches the end of its interest rate hike cycle, market expectations for the monetary policy directions of the two countries have begun to diverge. The yield on Australia's benchmark government bonds is expected to fall below that of the U.S. bonds for the first time in over a year. As markets increasingly bet that the RBA is nearing the end of its interest rate hike cycle, while the Federal Reserve (Fed) still has significant room for further hikes ahead, some strategists believe that the performance of Australian bonds relative to U.S. bonds is likely to continue until the end of 2026. The yield spread between Australia's 10-year government bonds and the U.S. 10-year government bonds has narrowed to about 12 basis points, approaching the lowest level since September 2025. Westpac Banking Corporation expects that the yield spreads between the two countries will converge over the coming months, and the National Bank of Australia even believes that this spread could turn negative. Kenneth Crompton, the head of interest rate strategy at Westpac, stated, "Our baseline scenario is that the yield spread between Australian and U.S. 10-year government bonds will turn negative in 2027, but it is not surprising to see this happening now. If by the end of next year, policy expectations between Australia and the Fed diverge significantly as we anticipate, that spread could easily touch negative 20 basis points again."