In the next 72 hours, a flurry of US macroeconomic data and earnings reports from tech giants will be released, putting the market under multiple pricing challenges. Besides the stock market, bonds, exchange rates, and crypto assets may also be affected, increasing the risk of short-term volatility.

Let's first look at the Federal Reserve and three key data points.

This round of data will begin with consumer confidence figures. A weaker reading would suggest a potential slowdown in household spending, potentially fueling concerns about an economic slowdown.

More closely watched is Wednesday's Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The report cites analysis from Bull Theory, stating that the market is currently pricing in approximately a 35% probability of a rate hike. If the Fed unexpectedly raises rates or releases a more hawkish signal after the meeting, risk pricing in stocks, bonds, and crypto assets could adjust rapidly.

• PCE inflation data will be released on Thursday.
• The US second-quarter GDP is expected to grow by approximately 2.1% to 2.2%.
• Slowing growth coupled with high inflation will exacerbate concerns about stagflation.

The report points out that the most unfavorable combination for the market is the coexistence of economic slowdown and sticky inflation. This would compress the Federal Reserve's policy space and put pressure on risk assets.

We'll also need to see inflation expectations on Friday.

The last important data point this week is the University of Michigan consumer sentiment data. The inflation expectations component is particularly crucial, as the Federal Reserve observes households' assessments of future prices to determine whether inflationary pressures are solidifying.

If inflation expectations continue to rise, the market may reassess the path of interest rates this year. If expectations fall, it would help alleviate concerns about further policy tightening.

Tech giants' earnings reports come in quick succession

In addition to macroeconomic data, earnings reports from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon will also be a focus of the market. The simultaneous release of results by multiple large tech companies means that this week's risk events are not only concentrated on policy but also extend to corporate profits and AI investment returns.

Among these factors, the growth rate of Amazon Web Services (AWS) is considered a key indicator of enterprise cloud demand and is also relevant to how the market assesses the commercialization progress of the AI investment cycle. For Apple, investors will focus on iPhone demand, service revenue, and the company's latest statements regarding AI.

Bull Theory believes the outcome of this round of events could influence market sentiment for the remainder of the quarter. If growth remains resilient, inflation subsides, and tech earnings are solid, risk assets are likely to find support; conversely, if inflation is strong, earnings guidance weakens, or the Federal Reserve adopts a more hawkish tone, global markets could experience a broader decline.