Foreign media, citing CryptoQuant, analyzed that the recent rapid rise of Zcash may not be a phenomenon unique to this particular altcoin, but rather a precursor signal that Bitcoin is facing pullback pressure. The report indicates that while Bitcoin has been maintaining a range-bound fluctuation, privacy coins like ZEC have shown abnormal strength, a pattern that has occurred multiple times before broader market adjustments in the past.
ZEC rose by about 70% in just a few days
The report mentions that analyst Maartun believes that ZEC has risen by about 70% in just a few days, and this trend has made him more cautious about the future of Bitcoin, rather than simply being bullish on Zcash. During this round of gains, Bitcoin was still hovering in the range of $60,000 to $80,000, failing to continue the breakout momentum seen after previous high points.
The relevant risk indicators for CryptoQuant have also entered extreme ranges. According to this institution, such signals have appeared multiple times in history before significant declines in Bitcoin, hence they are considered as market anomalies that require vigilance.
The derivatives market has experienced overheating.
CoinGlass Data shows that the trading volumes of spot and derivatives for ZEC have both significantly declined in the past 24 hours:
- Spot trading volume decreased by approximately 24.97%.
- Derivatives trading volume decreased by approximately 24.16%.
- Within a four-hour period, the increase in futures sell orders reached 101.68%.
The report also states that currently, there is still approximately $1.53 billion in borrowed funds remaining in the Zcash margin positions, which accounts for more than 11% of its market value of $13.13 billion. If prices continue to fluctuate, this portion of high-leverage positions could amplify the extent of market adjustments.
The market still has doubts about the long-term narrative.
Galaxy Digital, the research supervisor, and Alex Thorn also raised doubts about this round of gains. They believe that the market is treating ZEC as a "private version of Bitcoin" and is chasing after it, but its ecosystem has not shown strong enough long-term demand.
The report also mentioned that Thorn believes that account model blockchains inherently have shortcomings in terms of privacy, while chains based on UTXO such as Bitcoin have advantages in related characteristics. Considering the decline in trading volume and the relatively high leverage positions, foreign media believe that this recent sharp rise in ZEC is more like a short-term release of risk appetite, rather than a clear improvement in fundamentals.
