The U.S. market will see a round of intensive economic data releases this week. Following the renewed escalation of military actions between the United States and Iran, risk aversion has increased, and investors are using employment and economic indicators to re-assess the Federal Reserve's next interest rate moves.

Released in this week's dataset

On September 1st, data on job vacancies for JOLTS and the ISM manufacturing index will be released. On September 2nd, ADP employment data will be published. On September 3rd, preliminary unemployment benefit claims and the ISM service industry index will be announced. On September 4th, non-farm employment and unemployment rate data will be released.

This set of data covers employment, manufacturing, and services, and it usually has a direct impact on the market's assessment of the strength of the U.S. economy. It also changes expectations regarding the subsequent policy pace of the Federal Reserve.

High-interest-rate expectations are still brewing.

If the data released this week continues to show strong employment and relatively robust economic activity, market bets on interest rates remaining high for a longer period may further intensify. If some indicators show a clear weakening, expectations of interest rate cuts could gain support again.

Geopolitical tensions amplify market volatility

Against the backdrop of renewed tensions in the Middle East, the impact of macroeconomic data on the market may be further amplified. If the actual results deviate significantly from expectations, short-term fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar, and the stock market could intensify.