Before trading on Monday, due to Trump's rejection of Iran's ceasefire proposal, oil prices rose, geopolitical risk premiums remained high, and the three major U.S. stock index futures weakened in a volatile manner.Dow Jones Index Futures Main ContractFall by 0.53%.Nasdaq 100 Index Futures Main ContractFall by 0.89%.S&P 500 Index Futures Main ContractFall by 0.48%.
International crude oil futures are rising.Brent crude oil (cash) futures main contractRose by 3.16%;WTI Crude Oil Futures Main ContractRose by 3.59%.
U.S. Treasury yields break a seven-year highU.S. 10-year Treasury yieldBreakthrough of 5.2%.
US StocksSemiconductorsMost stocks were down at the beginning of trading; SK Hynix fell nearly 4%, Intel fell more than 3%, AMD, Micron Technology, and Marvell Technology fell more than 2%, Qualcomm fell more than 1%, and Broadcom fell about 1%; NVIDIA, however, rose more than 1% against the trend.
Optical CommunicationCollective decline before the market opening, AXT fell by more than 3%, Astera Labs, Corning, Credo, Coherent, Marvell Technologies fell by more than 2%, Ciena fell by nearly 2%, Lumentum fell by more than 1%, Broadcom, Avago fell by nearly 1%.
Storage ConceptsAll stocks fell before the market opened; SK Hynix fell nearly 4%, SanDisk fell more than 3%, Western Digital, Seagate Technology, Micron Technology, and Rambus all fell more than 2%.
Popular Chinese concept stocksBefore the market opened, there were mixed gains and losses: Beike rose by over 2%, Pinduoduo rose by over 0.5%, Alibaba remained flat, Baidu slightly declined, and Yamafin Sports fell by nearly 1%.
NVIDIA Launches AI Security System: Real-time Monitoring of Agents, Millisecond-level Prevention of Violations
NVIDIA released a dual-layer security platform on September 28th, which includes two open-source tools: OpenShell and Nvidia Sentry. These tools can run on NVIDIA hardware. OpenShell is responsible for controlling the permissions of agents to access resources and perform operations, while Sentry is tasked with monitoring behavior, identifying threats, and intervening when rules are triggered. The company claims that this system can isolate abnormal agents in milliseconds. Justin Boitano, the vice president of enterprise solutions at NVIDIA, stated that this technology could have prevented the incident of the OpenAI model attacking Hugging Face in July; however, he did not comment on whether OpenAI and Anthropic adopted this system.
NVIDIA announces an increase in the authorization for stock repurchases by $150 billion, bringing the total amount of the repurchase program to $235 billion. The company expects to execute this repurchase program before the fiscal year 2028.
Jensen Huang, Lee Jae-yong, and Choi Tae-won will attend a Korean association dinner together on the 28th.
According to the Seoul Economic Daily, Lee Jae-yong, President of Samsung Electronics, SK, Chairman of the SK Group, and NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang will meet again in New York, USA. It has been about two months since their last meeting. On the 27th, according to sources from South Korea's business community, Lee Jae-yong and Cui Taiyuan are scheduled to attend the annual dinner of the Korean Association held in New York at 18:00 on the 28th. Jensen Huang will attend as the recipient of this year's Van Fleet Award from the Korean Association. HBM is expected to be the main focus of this meeting. The New York meeting may also cover areas where Samsung has a strong presence, such as wafer foundry and advanced packaging. Some observers predict that the discussions may not be limited to HBM but could also extend to the transformation of chip production bases in AI as well as physical AI fields such as robotics.
Oracle's "force majeure" notice shakes the AI debt market; Morgan Stanley focuses on data center contract protection
According to reports on September 26,OracleNotifying large data center developers in New Mexico of force majeure in an attempt to avoid costs related to project delays. The news impacted the credit market on September 24th, causing widening spreads on data center bonds, and the cost of Oracle's five-year credit default protection rose to a historical high. Morgan Stanley analysts Lindsay Tyler and Vishwas Patkar stated in a report on September 25th that projects with higher construction and completion risks and weaker tenant credit were the most sensitive, while assets that are close to stable operation were less affected. The firm noted that this incident may prompt investors to re-examine the contractual protections provided by long-term leases, but they do not believe that Oracle is attempting to evade debt payments.
Microsoft comprehensively upgrades Copilot, integrating office, programming, and continuously running AI intelligents.
Microsoft released a new version on September 25th, adding three core capabilities: Home, Code, and Autopilot. Home integrates chat with task delegation and directly embeds Word, Excel, and PowerPoint; Code allows users to create applications, dashboards, and automated processes through natural language; Autopilot is an upgrade from Scout and enables continuous tracking of tasks in the cloud without the need for repeated reminders from users. Home and Code will be gradually rolled out over the next few weeks through the Frontier plan, and Autopilot will expand the scope of private preview by the end of the month. Microsoft stated that intelligent agent features such as Cowork, Code, and Autopilot are billed based on usage, and enterprise expenditure management tools are also provided.
GE Vernova Gas turbine orders extended until 2031, Goldman Sachs raises expectations for self-generated power at data centers
On September 27, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for the global data center's own power generation capacity by 2030 from 40 gigawatts to 67 gigawatts, expecting it to meet 25% of the global data center power demand by then. The report states that,GE VernovaThe backlog of orders and reserved production capacity total 116 gigawatts, with all capacity sold out by 2030, and more than half of the capacity for 2031 has also been sold. The delivery cycle for fuel cells is about 6 to 12 months, which is shorter than the 5 to 7 years for heavy-duty gas turbines. Goldman Sachs estimates that even if the new 2-gigawatt production line of Bloom Energy operates at full capacity, the cumulative delivery by 2030 will only be around 7.7 gigawatts, which is lower than their forecasted global demand of 18 gigawatts.
SpaceX The 14th test flight of the starship takes place tonight, aiming for its first orbit insertion and the deployment of a new generation of satellites.
SpaceX plans to initiate the 14th test flight window for Starship at 20:15 Beijing time on September 28th, with the window lasting for 75 minutes. The launch site is located at the Interstellar Base in Texas. The Federal Aviation Administration of the United States has confirmed that it issued a permit for this launch and re-entry operation on September 26th. This mission will attempt to place Starship into orbit for the first time and deploy 26 new-generation V3 satellites. The V3 satellites are manufactured at the Redmond facility, and their solar panels have twice the power generation capacity of the previous generation, allowing for higher data transmission rates. SpaceX, the Chief Operating Officer, also stated this month that the company plans to use Starship to send AI computing satellites into orbit in 2027.
SK Hynix' subsidiary's listing plan sparks controversy over shareholder profit distribution
It is reported that,SK HynixThe subsidiary Solidigm is considering listing in the US as early as 2027, aiming to raise approximately $15 billion and targeting a valuation of around $150 billion. The Korean Enterprise Governance Forum believes that a split listing will further increase the group's equity hierarchy; some investors are concerned that the future profits of NAND business will be shared by the new shareholders of Solidigm, which may reduce the indirect benefits obtained by the parent company's shareholders. Jung In Yun, the head of Fibonacci Asset Management, stated that while listing can unlock value and provide financing for expansion, existing shareholders will have to give up some of the future profits. Future asset securities analysts Kim Young to gun believe that selling some of the equity can be seen as recovering from the merger and acquisition investment and preparing for subsequent investments.
JPMorgan Chase upgraded its rating to “overweight” for two consecutive times; expects IREN to generate revenue of $24 billion by 2030
JPMorgan Chase willIREN LtdThe rating has been upgraded from "reduce holdings" to "increase holdings" by two levels, and the target price has been raised from $46 to $65. It is expected that its annual revenue will reach $24 billion by 2030. The model assumes that by then, the AI computing power capacity will be about 2065 megawatts, with revenue of approximately $13 million per megawatt, and the EBITDA profit margin will be close to 65%. As of the end of June 2026, the AI cloud revenue was $70.5 million, a quarter-on-quarter increase of about 110%, exceeding the $66.7 million in Bitcoin mining revenue during the same period. The company plans to basically stop mining by the end of the year, and Microsoft has accepted the delivery of its 50-megawatt Horizon project.
Facing off against Meta Muse, OpenAI is said to be launching a personal AI assistant, which may make its debut on Tuesday.
It is reported that OpenAI is preparing to launch a resident AI assistant named “o,” with the related brand logo already appearing in ChatGPT Pro product documentation. It is possible that this assistant will be unveiled at the developer conference on September 29th. The product is said to be driven by a specific variant of GPT-6 and Astra, known as “Aeon,” and is designed to handle long-running tasks. It may also become supporting software for OpenAI consumer-grade AI hardware. The report also suggests that the company might announce a ChatGPT Pro Max subscription plan with a monthly fee of $500.Cerebras SystemsWafer-level engines provide faster response times.
Global Macroeconomics
The Ministry of Commerce announced a "30 billion for 30 billion" reciprocal tax reduction framework, with over 90% of products regaining most-favored-nation treatment
The Ministry of Commerce announced on September 28 that during the economic and trade consultations from September 20 to 23, China and the United States reached a consensus on the working procedures of the Trade Council, a framework for reciprocal tariff reductions, and a list of products. Both sides will provide reciprocal tariff reductions for approximately $30 billion worth of imported products each, with over 90% of these products exempt from additional tariffs and enjoying most-favored-nation (MFN) tariff rates. The US list includes toys, household appliances, baby products, and kitchen and bathroom supplies, while China's list covers agricultural products, personal care products, medical devices, and coal. After completing their respective domestic legal procedures, both sides will implement the agreements simultaneously and plan to hold the first meeting of the Agricultural Working Group before the end of the year.
Trump rejects Iran's phased plan; U.S. and Iran will continue to engage this week
On September 26, Trump stated that he had rejected the agreement proposed by Iran, but the two sides would continue to engage in discussions this week. Iran's proposal called for the United States to cease military actions, lift port blockades, release frozen assets, and adjust oil restrictions. Once these conditions were met, a seven-day countdown would begin to resume traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. On September 27, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Pompeo said that the U.S. believed Iran was asking for too many economic and sanctions concessions at the early stage of negotiations. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif reiterated that the resumption of traffic was still contingent on the fulfillment of these conditions. Before the European trading session on Monday, Brent crude oil approached $100 per barrel, with a cumulative increase of about 10% this month.
The Fed takes tough measures to combat inflation; short-term U.S. Treasury yields see accelerated repricing, and the challenge is once again thrown to Besant
According to an analysis by Jonathan Levin, a contributor to Bloomberg's opinion column, since Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chairman Powell at the end of August, the real yields of two-year and five-year inflation-protected Treasury bonds in the United States have risen by approximately 57 and 64 basis points respectively, while the change in the break-even inflation rate has been relatively limited. Last week, the yield spread between 10-year and two-year U.S. Treasuries narrowed to around 17 basis points for a time, with traders already factoring in at least three 25-basis-point interest rate hikes over the next year. Levin believes that the Treasury Department, which relies on short-term financing and has expanded its repurchase of long-term bonds, will face faster increasing rolling financing costs as interest rates rise; the Treasury Department will announce the next round of quarterly refinancing arrangements on November 4th.
Super Data Week: PCE follows closely on the heels of non-farm payroll data, with the Fed's policy path for October becoming the focus
The United States will release the PCE price index for August and the ADP employment data for September on September 30th, and the non-farm payroll report for September on October 2nd. This week, data on JOLTS job vacancies and initial unemployment claims will also be released. Market pricing on Monday indicates that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again in October is about 65%; markets generally expect an increase of about 100,000 new non-farm jobs in September, which is lower than the performance in August. Plante Moran, the chief investment officer, believes that employment far exceeding expectations would strengthen the case for raising rates, while a significant weakening could trigger concerns about growth. James Knightley, an economist, pointed out that the September employment report and the subsequent inflation data are key in determining the next steps of policy.
AI Out-of-bound incidents exacerbate security concerns; Trump meets with the leader of Anthropic
According to Bloomberg, Trump met with the CEO of Anthropic, Amodei, on the evening of September 27 local time to discuss issues such as slowing down the development of AI. On the evening of September 25, OpenAI stated that due to its AI agents breaking through security test environments and accessing the internet, it would suspend training of its most powerful models; previously, its models were also reported to have accessed the Australian government system without authorization. Trump emphasized maintaining the leading position of American AI and opposed slowing down development; Amodei advocated for controlling the pace of advanced model iterations and strengthening regulation, but stressed that investments would not be cut. Microsoft co-founder Gates refuted the claim that AI risks were a "scam," calling for monitoring of advanced models and recording their activities.
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