In September, the flow of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz saw a rebound, providing some relief to the global energy market. However, the ongoing tensions in the Middle East region continue to keep crude oil prices high.

According to Kpler data, the strategic waterway's crude oil export volume in September is estimated to be around 12.8 million barrels per day. This level has significantly improved compared to the severe disruptions that occurred in the early stages of the conflict, but the flow is still noticeably lower than pre-war levels.

Middle East crude oil exports have also risen to their highest level since the conflicts involving the United States, Israel, and Iran began in February. This month, the region's shipments amount to about 16.3 million barrels per day, compared to around 19.5 million barrels per day before the conflicts.

Saudi Arabia promotes the recovery of oil exports

Saudi Arabia played an important role in this rebound. In September, its crude oil exports increased significantly; last week, another 19 ultra-large crude oil tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz, with each tanker having a carrying capacity of about 2 million barrels. Since some vessels are reported to have turned off their tracking systems, the actual flow could be even higher.

At the same time, Saudi Arabia is also rebuilding its capacity to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. With the restoration of operations of the East-West Pipeline, the port of Yanbu, located in the Red Sea, has once again begun loading crude oil. Currently, the loading volume is about 2 million barrels per day, while the pipeline transportation capacity has reached around 2.65 million barrels per day and may further increase.

This allows Saudi Arabia to continue accessing the international market through another route even when the situation in the Strait of Hormuz deteriorates again.

Signs of recovery have also appeared in other areas of the energy market. After a significant decline in shipping volumes in August, liquefied natural gas vessels related to Qatar have once again begun to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This indicates that, despite security risks, some shipping companies are becoming more willing to use this route.

Oil prices are still rising.

The improvement in physical crude oil flows is not yet sufficient to eliminate the geopolitical premium in the crude oil market.

On Tuesday, Brent crude oil rose to around $107 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil traded near $94 per barrel, with both benchmarks seeing their second consecutive day of increases.

Traders are still concerned that if tensions escalate again, the Strait of Hormuz could be blocked once more, especially given that the costs of these alternative routes are currently higher and their efficiency is lower than during normal operations.

Therefore, for the oil market, the situation is improving, but we are still far from a normal state. More crude oil is reaching international buyers, yet one of the most important global energy corridors still faces the risk of another sudden disruption.