The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its JOLTS report for August on September 29, revealing another side of the labor market: there were approximately 7.079 million job vacancies at the end of the month, a decrease of 256,000 from the revised figures for July; about 5.192 million people were hired, while a total of around 5.07 million people left their jobs. Officials characterized these monthly changes as "not significant" overall and did not claim that hiring had suddenly come to a halt. This description may not be as sensational as "a sudden drop in jobs," but it is more in line with the actual data. To understand this report, it is first necessary to separate the positions advertised by companies, the number of people who actually started working, and the reasons why employees left their jobs.

The job vacancy rate in August was 4.3%, with a revised figure of 4.4% in July; the recruitment rate was 3.3%, and the turnover rate was 3.2%. Job vacancies refer to positions that remain unfilled on the last working day of the month, while recruitment and turnover statistics cover the entire month. One figure represents the inventory at the end of the month, and the other two represent the flow throughout the month. It is not appropriate to simply subtract 5.19 million recruitments from 7.08 million vacancies to conclude that "companies are still short of 1.89 million people." Positions may be opened, canceled, or filled through internal transfers at different times, so the statistical methodology does not support such a simple subtraction.

The total amount seems stable, but internally, things are quietly shifting positions.

The report shows that in August, approximately 3.1 million people resigned voluntarily, with a resignation rate of 1.9%, which is basically the same as last month; about 1.6 million people were laid off or dismissed, accounting for a ratio of 1.0%, and there was no significant monthly change either. Voluntary resignation is often used to observe workers' confidence in finding new employment opportunities: when people believe it is easier to find better jobs outside, their willingness to resign tends to be stronger. However, this indicator is affected by industry structure, family financial circumstances, and seasonal factors, so a flat month-long trend cannot be directly interpreted as an improvement or deterioration in confidence.

Breaking down by industry, the number of job vacancies in the construction sector decreased from around 299,000 in July to 251,000, while in the manufacturing sector it dropped from about 576,000 to 522,000; in the retail industry, it increased from around 707,000 to 761,000. The Bureau of Labor Statistics still categorizes the overall changes in job vacancies across industries as "not significant" in its main report, which means that these numerical differences should not be interpreted as confirmed industry trends. In terms of recruitment, the number of job vacancies in the construction sector decreased from about 358,000 to 308,000, and in the manufacturing sector it increased from about 293,000 to 332,000, so it will take several more months to determine the direction of these trends. For both businesses and job seekers, the mismatch between local areas, job positions, and required skills is often more pronounced than the national averages.

Differences in industries where layoffs occur also indicate that the market is not a uniform entity. The wholesale industry saw a voluntary resignation of about 34,000 people, while state and local education departments experienced a reduction of about 21,000 employees; the non-durable goods manufacturing sector saw an increase of about 28,000 employees, and private education services added about 13,000 employees. The overall reduction of 30,000 employees in state and local education departments is a significant change that was specifically noted by officials. The term "leaves of employment" here includes voluntary resignations, layoffs, and other reasons, so the overall decrease in departures from these departments cannot be solely attributed to employers reducing layoffs.

There is one more aspect that is often overlooked: the smallest businesses. The report indicates that the vacancy rate for positions in organizations with 1 to 9 employees has decreased, while the rates of hiring, resignations, and layoffs have not changed significantly. Large companies typically have longer recruitment processes, whereas small businesses may quickly adjust their needs when a position becomes available. The decline in vacancies in small businesses is worth observing, but it is not enough to conclude from these monthly figures that there will be a new wave of layoffs across the private sector.

From the perspective of job seekers, this also explains why having "more than seven million vacancies" does not necessarily mean that it is easy to find a job. A position may require a specific city, licenses, or experience; some companies keep job listings open for a long time but postpone interviews, while others quickly cancel their recruitment needs after they start. JOLTS is responsible for tracking positions that meet the survey criteria and job turnover, without evaluating whether the salary for each position is sufficient to attract applicants. Directly converting the overall number of vacancies into an individual's probability of getting a job ignores these practical obstacles.

Why is this report not sufficient to determine the next interest rate move on its own?

When JOLTS was released, the question that the market loved to ask was "Will the Federal Reserve change interest rates as a result?" A decrease in vacancies often indicates a marginal weakening of labor demand, which can help ease wage pressures; however, in this August report, recruitment and resignations remained roughly stable, and there was no significant increase in layoffs. The signal it sends is more like "demand has not accelerated again, nor has it shown a sharp deterioration," rather than an instruction that can be directly translated as a rate cut or hike. Policy decisions still need to be made in conjunction with non-farm employment, unemployment rates, wage growth, inflation, and subsequent revisions.

Revisions are particularly important this time. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has upwardly revised the number of job vacancies in July to 7.335 million (an increase of 64,000), the number of hiring activities to 5.146 million (an increase of 92,000), and the total number of departures to 5.128 million (an increase of 56,000). If we compare the older July figures from previous reports with today's August figures, we may overstate or underestimate the changes. The August data itself is also a preliminary estimate, and subsequent corporate reports and seasonal adjustments could still change these figures. Therefore, it is responsible writing to use "about 7.08 million" in the headline and to note the revised figures in the body of the text.

Compared to the non-farm payroll report released a few days ago, the questions asked in the JOLTS survey are different. The non-farm survey focuses on changes in employment positions over a certain reference payment period; the JOLTS survey breaks down job openings, new hires, and departures into a detailed flow map. Both surveys can complement each other, but they may also point in different directions due to differences in survey subjects, sampling methods, and revisions. For job seekers, having job openings does not guarantee an interview, and the number of people being hired does not equate to the quality of the positions; for companies, stable job openings do not necessarily mean it is easy to recruit new staff. The most clear conclusion from this set of data for August is that the U.S. job market is still functioning, but the gap between job listings and actual hiring needs to be closely monitored.