Key Points

• OPEC cuts forecast for oil demand growth in 2026 by 71%
• Despite expected weakening demand, Brent crude oil remains above $100 per barrel.
• OPEC Expect strong rebound in oil demand in 2027

Despite the ongoing disruptions in supply from the Middle East continuing to support oil prices, OPEC has lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 by about 71% from the initial estimate, yet Brent crude oil prices remain above $100 per barrel.

Secretary-General Haitham Ghasi ( Haitham Al Ghais ) stated at the World Petroleum Congress held in Riyadh on October 12 that OPEC currently expects demand to grow by only 400,000 barrels per day this year, whereas the forecast at the beginning of 2026 was 1.4 million barrels per day.

This reduction highlights the increasingly apparent contradiction in the energy market: consumption growth is far slower than expected, yet the risks of physical supply are still driving up oil prices.

OPEC cuts oil demand growth forecast for 2026 by 1 million barrels

Reuters says that the updated outlook for OPEC reflects changes in global oil consumption in 2026, including economic pressures and various disruptions that affect the energy market.

The reduction this time is 1 million barrels per day, which accounts for about 71% of the initial forecast for demand growth.

It is worth noting that this forecast was gradually lowered after multiple revisions throughout the year, and it was not a one-time reduction on October 12th.

In the September assessment, OPEC anticipated a demand increase of 400,000 barrels per day, which includes a decrease of about 100,000 barrels per day in the developed economies of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development ( OECD ), as well as a growth of 500,000 barrels per day in non- OECD countries.

Why is Brent oil price still above $100 despite weakening demand?

A slowdown in demand growth usually alleviates the pressure on crude oil prices, but the global market is facing another issue: supply disruptions.

After Saudi infrastructure and commercial shipping were attacked, reigniting concerns in the market about exports to the Middle East, Brent crude oil prices rose to around $106 per barrel on October 12.

Previous disruptions in exports from the Gulf region have shown that the resumption of crude oil transportation can coexist with shortages of refined products such as diesel.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration ( EIA ) also expects that the average price of Brent crude oil in the fourth quarter will be around $105 per barrel, reflecting tight inventories and ongoing transportation risks.

Even if there is an improvement in oil supply routes, it may not immediately eliminate these pressures.