Will Bitcoin fall to $75,000? Why is Celler's holding cost a key observation point?

Both of Bitcoin's major buyers showed signs of withdrawing last week. The US spot Bitcoin ETF experienced the largest outflow of funds in nearly four months, while Michael Saylor's Strategy made one of the smallest Bitcoin purchases this year. However, Bitcoin still remained above $80,000 for a consecutive week. An analyst analyzed the data to try and identify who is still buying in the market.

The current position of Bitcoin

After hitting $84,352 on Monday, Bitcoin encountered resistance and then fell back to around $81,000 overnight. Subsequently, the price rebounded above $83,000. On October 8th, which was the low point of last week, the price was $80,393. Calculated from the beginning of the week, Bitcoin has fallen by about 4% this week. In the United States, 679 million US dollars' worth of spot Bitcoin ETF flowed out last week, which is approximately 8,000 Bitcoins at current prices.

Since their launch in January 2024, these ETF have accumulated a net inflow of $57 billion, so the outflow last week accounted for only about 1.2% of the total amount. The rise in U.S. Treasury yields may explain some of the selling pressure. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds closed at 5.31% last Monday, hitting the highest closing level of the year, providing investors with a safer alternative option.

This analyst also compared the current situation with a worse period earlier this year. From mid-May to early July, there was a continuous eight-week outflow of funds from ETF, totaling approximately $8.3 billion, which is more than 12 times the amount of last week. During this period, Bitcoin fell from around $80,700 to below $59,000, a decrease of over 25%. He also stated that during about half of the trading days this year, there was an outflow of funds from ETF, which he considered a normal phenomenon.

Strategy Buying back stocks rather than purchasing Bitcoin

From October 5th to 11th, Strategy only purchased 250 units of BTC for $21.5 million, marking the smallest single purchase since 2026. During the same period, the company spent $192.4 million repurchasing its own STRC preferred stocks, an amount nearly nine times that of its investment in Bitcoin.

The company currently holds 848,250 BTC, with an average holding cost of $75,444.

Who is selling?

A large portion of the selling pressure comes from leveraged traders. On the Binance platform, the number of open Bitcoin futures contracts decreased from about 97,400 BTC to about 92,400 BTC within a week, representing a decline of about 5%. The funding rate has also fallen back close to zero, indicating that excessive leverage has been cleared.

However, not all the data is positive. On October 6th alone, approximately 25,000 BTC were transferred to exchanges; between October 8th and 11th, the net inflow of BTC to exchanges increased by another 5,300. The transfer of tokens to exchanges may indicate that holders are preparing to sell them.

Who is buying?

This analyst believes that there are two forces supporting Bitcoin. The first is the spot buyers. On Binance, on October 7th and 8th, the proportion of active buying volume was only about 49%. Starting from October 9th, this proportion increased to 55.6%, then to 52.7%, and finally to 56.3%. In other words, after the lows appeared, buyers quickly entered the market, and mainly in the spot market, not the futures market.

The second and most important force is the long-term holders. Approximately 63% of Bitcoin has not been transferred over the past year or so. “These coins are not sold at $83,000, nor are they sold at $80,000,” he said. When ETF sells 8,000 BTC, and most of the supply in the market remains static, the impact on prices will be relatively limited.

He also mentioned the "true market average," which is the average holding cost of active investors, currently around $79,250. Last week's low point happened to be just above this level, followed by buying interest entering the market.

What's next for the chart?

This analyst believes that there are two possible paths for the market in the future, and the likelihood of each path occurring is roughly equal.

• Bullish scenario: A rebound starting from $80,944 could evolve into a stronger upward trend, with short-term targets ranging from $84,177 to $86,232. Afterwards, the daily chart suggests targets between $88,597 and $97,637. If Bitcoin falls below $80,393, this assessment will no longer hold true.
• Cautious outlook: The current upward trend is merely a temporary rebound and may run out of momentum in the range of $84,956 to $85,434, which is within the resistance zone extending up to $86,600. If resistance is encountered at this level, prices could fall again.

If it clearly breaks through $86,600, the likelihood of a bullish trend will be even higher.

The level of $75,000 is the most noteworthy.

The analyst suggested a support range of $63,326 to $74,840. He emphasized that this is not a target price but rather a "safety net." The upper boundary of this range is close to two key cost levels:

• Strategy Average holding cost: $75,444
• Average holding cost for short-term holders: approximately $74,400

At this level, both the largest coin holders and the average new buyers will return to the break-even point. Whether they continue to hold or start selling at that time may determine the next major trend for Bitcoin. The analyst stated that if there is a deeper pullback, he might start buying around $75,000.

Disclaimer

As stated by CoinPedia, all views and opinions expressed in this text represent solely the author's judgment of the current market conditions. The author reminds readers to conduct their own research before making investment decisions, and neither the author nor the publication assumes any responsibility for the readers' financial choices.