It is reported that the price of Bitcoin has rebounded above $80,000 at the time of publication, with an increase of over 1% in the past 24 hours. Traders are assessing the improving capital flows in exchanges, the fluctuating demand for ETF, and the geopolitical uncertainties ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
Before the Federal Reserve made its decision on October 28th, the price of Bitcoin had rebounded above $80,000, but it was still below an important resistance level.
US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $110.3 million on October 26, following two consecutive trading days of capital outflows.
Santiment reports that the exchange saw a net outflow of 14,942 BTC, representing the largest single-day withdrawal volume in five weeks.
Reports of the possibility of the United States taking military action against Iran have sparked concerns in the market regarding oil prices and inflation.
The price of Bitcoin needs to return to the range of $81,400 to $82,500 in order to strengthen its rebound momentum; however, $80,000 remains the current support level.
According to the market data from crypto.news, BTC fluctuated between $79,416 and $81,159 over the past day, and closed near $80,800. The trading volume was approximately $23.5 billion, with a market capitalization still exceeding $1.62 trillion.
This rebound occurred after a difficult week for institutional demand, however, the ETF funds turned back to net inflow, and there was a large-scale outflow of funds from exchanges, which provided some support for the market.
At the same time, new reports about the possibility of the United States taking military action against Iran have also added another layer of uncertainty to financial markets.
ETF Capital flow is positive, Bitcoin rebounds
After significant net outflows of spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States for two consecutive trading days, institutional capital flows improved on October 26. These funds attracted a total of approximately $110.3 million in inflows, mainly from BlackRock's IBIT.
Previously, on October 22nd and 23rd, the total net outflow was approximately 773.5 million US dollars, with 635.6 million US dollars flowing out on the first day. As crypto.news mentioned in reports about the decline in Bitcoin, these capital withdrawals coincided with leveraged liquidations and market concerns regarding the future of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
However, data from SoSoValue on October 27th shows that the net inflow was only about 24.54 million US dollars, indicating that institutional demand remains unstable. The cumulative net inflow is approximately 57.32 billion US dollars, but the daily buying momentum has not yet fully recovered from last week's capital withdrawal.
On-chain activities present a different picture. According to the Santiment report, approximately 14,942 BTC left the exchange in the form of net outflows, marking the largest single-day outflow in five weeks.
In addition, this analytics firm believes that these withdrawals may indicate a reduction in short-term selling pressure before the Federal Reserve's announcement. However, the flow of funds between exchanges does not necessarily prove that holders are increasing their holdings, as transfers may also involve changes in custody or transfers between platforms.
The Fed's decision adds uncertainty to the future of Bitcoin
The Federal Reserve's policy statement on October 28 remains the focal point for crypto traders, with market attention focused on interest rates and Chairman Kevin Warsh's stance on inflation.
As previously listed in the weekly economic calendar, while awaiting the Federal Reserve's decision, investors will also be looking forward to the U.S. third-quarter GDP data, September personal consumption expenditure ( PCE ) inflation figures, as well as the financial reports of major tech companies.
The market expects policymakers to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4.00%, up from 3.50% previously in September by 25 basis points. If comments suggest another interest rate hike in December, it could suppress speculative assets; however, if the guidance is more accommodative, it might support a rebound for Bitcoin.
CryptoQuant Research Director Julio Moreno stated that during October, the demand for spot Bitcoin continued to shrink as American investors largely remained on the sidelines. He pointed out that the institution's Bull Score index has dropped from 90 to 60, indicating that the market environment is not as favorable as before.
Moreno also pointed out that the 365-day moving average of $77,585, the price achieved by traders of $74,041, and the 200-day moving average of $73,028 are levels that deserve attention when the market is weakening.
Tensions in Iran rise, increasing the geopolitical risks for Bitcoin prices
Following reports on preparations that may lead to a resumption of military actions against Iran, geopolitical developments have made market prospects even more complex.
According to a report by The Wall Street Journal on October 28th, U.S. officials have warned several Gulf countries that there could be a short-term military operation after the mid-term elections on November 3rd. The report stated that the related military preparations involve air defense systems and regional forces, but no final decision regarding whether to launch an attack has yet been made.
These developments have reignited market concerns about oil prices and potential inflationary pressures. Higher energy costs could make future Federal Reserve policy expectations more complex, especially in a situation where tensions lead to sustained increases in crude oil prices.
The reaction of Bitcoin remains uncertain. Although some investors regard this cryptocurrency as an alternative asset during periods of geopolitical turmoil, recent trading shows that it is still very sensitive to changes in liquidity, interest rates, and financial risk preferences.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can BTC Return to $82,000?
Although Bitcoin has returned above $80,000, its daily technical structure remains cautious. The chart shows that BTC is currently near $80,915, which is below the 9-day moving average of $81,416 and the 21-day moving average of $81,905.
Since the short-term moving average is below the long-term moving average, the chart still maintains a bearish crossover. The Relative Strength Index ( RSI ) is at 45.52, which is below the neutral 50 level, indicating that the buying momentum has not yet fully recovered.
Cryptography analyst Rekt Capital believes that $81,400 is an important three-day closing level for Bitcoin after it fell below this mark. If it cannot regain this range, it may reinforce its resistance; however, if it continues to recover, it will increase the likelihood of testing the $82,000 to $82,500 range.
The current support level is still around $80,000; if selling pressure reappears, the next supports are expected to be at $78,000 and $76,000. If the price breaks through the short-term moving average, $84,202 will come into view, with stronger resistance around $86,000.
Additionally, analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that in the previous three years of mid-term elections in the United States – 2014, 2018, and 2022 – Bitcoin recorded negative returns in the fourth quarter.
These historical observations merely describe past performance and do not imply that Bitcoin will repeat this pattern in 2026.
Disclosure:This article does not constitute investment advice. The content and materials on this page are for educational purposes only.
