The final vote counting results in Israel showed that the right-wing camp led by the current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as the opposition led by former military commander Gadi Eizenkot, failed to obtain the 61 seats required to form a government.
This result means that cabinet formation negotiations will unfold in the coming weeks, and political uncertainty will increase; in Israel's parliament, which has 120 seats, the opposition alliance will face a difficult situation if it wants to form a majority government.
According to data from the Central Election Commission, Netanyahu's Likud party and its far-right allies won 53 seats in parliament, which is less than the 61 seats required for a majority, as well as fewer than the 64 seats they obtained in the 2022 elections.
The main opposition camp led by Esenkote won 48 seats, but also failed to reach the majority threshold.
Essenkote now faces a difficult path in forming a government. Most of the political parties in its camp refuse to rely on Arab parties, while Essenkote states that neither side meets his criteria for partners. The joint list and the Ram Party together won 19 seats, which is the highest level in history for Arab-led parties.
Netanyahu's party intensified its accusations that Arab-led parties had "stolen" the election, amplifying the claim that emerged after exit polls indicated a setback for the prime minister's camp.
On Thursday, the Likud party claimed, without any evidence, that foreign intervention was "aimed at facilitating a foreign takeover of parliament, Islamizing Israel, and overthrowing the right-wing government."
One day before this statement was released, Norm Sorgberg, a Supreme Court judge who presides over the Central Election Commission, requested that the Shin Bet security agency investigate "serious suspicions" regarding the influence of foreign entities' funds on the election.
Solberg stated that he was unable to confirm the substance of these suspicions and requested that the relevant authorities verify the claims.
Qatar, which has been accused of attempting to mobilize Arab voters, denies interfering in the elections, calling these accusations "equally absurd and dangerous."
Opposition leaders also called for a thorough investigation, while warning against using these accusations to question or otherwise influence the election results.
Although the counting of votes has been completed, according to the Central Election Commission, there may still be "minor adjustments" before the results are submitted to President Isaac Herzog next Wednesday.
The new parliament is scheduled to take oath of office on November 10th, and political parties have until November 18th to challenge the results.
"Those who make a comeback"
If the political deadlock continues, Netanyahu may remain in the position of acting prime minister until new coalition negotiations begin, and it is even possible that this could trigger another election. The risk of renewed warfare with Iran also remains a key variable.
"Bebi [Netanyahu] is known as a 'returner from the ashes.' It is no coincidence that he has become the prime minister with the longest tenure," said P.R. Kumarswamy, honorary professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University, and added that he expects Netanyahu to continue his current policies towards Iran and Gaza.
This week, Israeli assets have been under pressure. On Wednesday, the shekel experienced its worst decline since 2023 during trading hours, but then it rebounded somewhat. According to LSEG data, as of Friday morning, Tel Aviv's main benchmark stock index had fallen by 4.1% this week.
"Before a new government is formed and decisions are made regarding fiscal consolidation and war-related expenditures, we expect some volatility in Israeli assets in the short term," said Elini Tsakridou, fixed-income analyst at Julius Bell. She added that Israel's economic fundamentals and monetary policy should provide support.
What will happen next?
President Herzog will begin consultations with various competing political parties next week and designate the leader he believes is most likely to form a majority government.
Netanyahu may be the first to receive a call to initiate the 28-day process of forming a government, which can be extended for up to another 14 days.
If these efforts fail, new elections will be held, during which Netanyahu will remain in office. According to data from the Israel Democracy Institute, past attempts to form a government have typically taken between 20 and 100 days.
Netanyahu may also push for the formation of a national unity government, advocating for unity at a time when the country is facing conflicts on multiple fronts, but many of his opponents have ruled out such an arrangement.
