AI, the data analytics company driven by Palantir Technologies ( PLTR ), will announce its third-quarter results on Monday, November 2nd. Over the past three months, the stock price of PLTR has risen by 50%, and it has increased by 3.6% since the beginning of the year. The company has been experiencing strong growth due to the demand for its artificial intelligence platform ( AIP ). However, concerns about the overvaluation of PLTR in the market still exist. The options market expects that the stock price of PLTR will experience a double-sided fluctuation of about 13.3% after the release of its third-quarter financial report in 2026.

It should be noted that the implied volatility of options reflects the expected range of stock price fluctuations after the financial report, rather than whether the stock price will rise or fall.

Stock price fluctuations after recent financial reports

For reference, the average stock price fluctuation after the last four financial reports of PLTR is 12.79% when calculated in absolute terms. This implies that the fluctuations are higher than this average level. It is worth noting that the reactions after the previous financial reports (calculated in absolute terms) ranged from 6.85% to 29.45%. It should be clarified that historical fluctuations are provided for reference only and do not constitute a forecast.

What factors may affect the stock price of PLTR?

Given concerns about high valuations in the market, if the company fails to meet analysts' expectations, its stock price may come under pressure. Wall Street expects that Palantir's revenue in the third quarter of 2026 will grow by 85% year-on-year to $2.18 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth forecast of 95.2%.

Investors will also pay attention to management's comments on performance prospects and orders in order to assess the demand context. They will also closely monitor the outlook for spending.

Palantir Analyst Expectations Before the Third Quarter Report

Before the release of the third-quarter report, Baird analyst William Power reiterated his "buy" rating for PLTR stock, with a target price of $250. This five-star analyst expects the company's third-quarter performance to be strong, mainly driven by potential growth in U.S. business and government-related operations. He anticipates that Palantir's revenue growth rate will accelerate for the 13th consecutive quarter.

Despite the relatively high valuation multiple, Power still considers the stock's valuation to be attractive. He believes that there is a possibility of an upward revision in valuation and states that an expected scenario where free cash flow exceeds $9 billion in 2027 is reasonable compared to his current forecast of $7.06 billion in free cash flow for that year.

In contrast, analyst Rishi Jaluria reiterated his "sell" rating on Palantir's stock, with a target price of $90, and noted that the "risk-return ratio is negative." This five-star analyst pointed out that PLTR remains the most expensive stock within RBC's "full coverage" range, with enterprise value/consensus earnings multiples of approximately 61 times and 40 times for 2026 and 2027, respectively. Jaluria stated, "Although we acknowledge that it appears cheaper from a growth-adjusted perspective, it is difficult for us to construct a scenario that would justify the current valuation level."

The analyst pointed out that retail investors have once again turned their attention to capital return themes, focusing on dividends, stock splits, and share repurchases. He believes that this shift indicates that, despite the fact that Palantir has a cash balance of nearly $9 billion, investors are dissatisfied with the lack of shareholder returns.

Is it appropriate to buy PLTR now?

Before the release of third-quarter earnings in 2026, Wall Street's consensus rating for Palantir stock was "moderate buy," based on 19 "buy" ratings, 4 "hold" ratings, and 2 "sell" ratings. The average target price for PLTR stock is $218.95, which indicates approximately 19% room for upside.

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