The midterms on Tuesday will determine who will control Congress during the remaining term of Donald Trump's presidency. American voters will decide whether Trump will continue to maintain the Republican Party's strong control over Washington, or whether the country will enter a "lame-duck" phase ahead of time after a Democratic victory.
If the Republicans win, Trump may face little resistance from Congress in the coming two years and will be able to continue to push through major policy initiatives. If the Democrats win one or both chambers of Congress, the president's remaining legislative priorities will be severely hindered, and even the basic functioning of the government could become stuck in a deadlock.
Before the election day, both the odds offered by betting companies and public opinion polls indicated that the Democratic Party was in a relatively advantageous position, especially in terms of regaining control of the House of Representatives, which is currently held by the Republican Party. However, the final outcome of the power distribution will only become clear once the votes have been counted, a process that can take several days or even weeks in some cases. The Senate race is expected to be particularly close; if the ultimate control hinges on Alaska, the whole country may have to wait for that state to complete its vote counting.
The Washington Policy Strategy Team under Stifel wrote in an analyst report on Sunday: 'The election results may immediately trigger a market reaction, especially as the outcome in the Senate becomes clearer.' The institution predicts that the Democrats will win the House of Representatives, while the Senate is still likely to remain close. 'However, as investors realize that in either case, the policy outcome is most likely to be a stalemate, the initial reflexive trading in the market may reverse.'
The Republican Party currently also controls the Senate, and their majority advantage there is greater than that in the House of Representatives.
If the Democratic Party takes control of one house of Congress, policy-making in Washington will become significantly more rigid. With the current narrow margin between congressional seats, it will become impossible for a single party to advance bills through the budget coordination process, which is the procedural tool used for most major expenditures and policy adjustments. At that point, passing legislation will require bipartisan cooperation, making government appropriation bills, defense spending, and the upcoming debt ceiling increases, among other necessary bills, even more important and controversial.
In a divided Congress, political parties that do not control the White House often take advantage of moments such as government appropriations and debt ceiling increases to seek concessions from the majority party, a practice that can lead to brinksmanship.
Stifel writes: 'If the Republicans manage to retain their majority in the Senate against general expectations, then we expect to see a round of relief-driven gains in those sectors that might have reacted negatively to a Democratic victory. The Democrats will still control the House of Representatives, and a stalemate will prevail. In such a scenario, Senate Republicans will serve as a check on both the Democrats and many of Trump's populist impulses.'
It is also widely anticipated by the outside world that if the Democratic Party gains any majority seats in Congress, they will initiate investigations into the White House and related companies that have cooperated with the Trump administration. The majority party will gain the power to issue subpoenas within congressional committees.
Polls show that it is not impossible for the Democrats to sweep both the House of Representatives and the Senate. In such a scenario, the Democrats may be more proactive in pushing for budget coordination measures that follow party lines. Although these measures may not necessarily become law, they will give the Democrats a greater platform to make their voices heard before the 2028 presidential election. Trump can still veto legislation passed by Congress, which would seriously limit the prospects of Democratic bills becoming law.
If the Democratic Party controls both houses of Congress at the same time, it would be slightly easier to pass the necessary bills. However, relevant agreements still need to be negotiated with the White House, and the threshold of 60 votes required to obstruct proceedings in the Senate could still pose an obstacle, forcing cooperation between the two parties. It is highly unlikely that either party would control at least 60 seats in the Senate.
If there is an opportunity, Democratic members of the House of Representatives and the Senate will quickly push for investigations into the White House and related companies.
Analysts expect that whether Congress is split or under unified control of the Democratic Party, due to the congressional deadlock, the frequency of Trump's use of executive orders will increase.
It is also possible for the Republican Party to continue to control both chambers of Congress. In such a case, Trump's remaining legislative agenda could proceed, and the status quo could be maintained.
However, the Democratic Party will still retain a certain amount of leverage, mainly from the 60-vote threshold in the Senate to obstruct proceedings, but their ability to conduct investigations into the White House and related corporations will be limited.
