U.S. Senator Susan Collins admitted defeat to Democrat Troy Jackson early Wednesday, ending her 30-year career in the Senate. Her loss could result in New England region having no Republican members of Congress for the first time since the establishment of the Republican Party.
Collins called Jackson not long after midnight. In a statement issued in Bangor, she said, “It is an honor of a lifetime to serve the people of Maine in the U.S. Senate. I called Troy Jackson tonight to congratulate him and assure him that my team and I will work hard to ensure a smooth transition.” NBC News had predicted Jackson’s victory, but as of 1 a.m. Eastern Time, The Associated Press had not yet announced the election results.
Jackson told supporters in Portland that he was grateful for Collins' service and "wished her and her family all the best." She will become the first Democrat to win a Senate election in Maine since 1988.
A streak of victories that began with the Republican Party
Whether this “reset” will occur immediately depends on another election. In Maine’s Second Congressional District, former Republican Governor Paul LePage is in a close race with Democrat Matt Dunlap for the seat of retiring Congressman Jared Golden. The Associated Press has also not yet announced the results of that election.
If Draper wins, it will break a record that is as old as the history of the Republican Party. After its establishment in 1854, the Republican Party held 38 out of 41 seats in the House of Representatives and Senate in New England, but its share has steadily declined since then. In New Hampshire alone, there has been at least one Republican in the congressional delegation for 81 consecutive terms, a streak that was not interrupted until 2017.
The Republican presence in the New England region has been on the decline for many years. In 2018, Fortune reported that after Gordon defeated the last Republican congressman, the Republicans no longer held any seats in the House of Representatives from New England. Since then, Collins has been the only Republican in both houses of Congress from New England. Her term will continue until January next year, so any "reset" will not take place until after the new Congress is sworn in.
The only Republican with a chance of winning
For a long time, Republican leadership has stated that Collins is their only chance in Maine. Last year, Senate Majority Leader John Thune said that there is “a way to elect a Republican” in Maine, and that person is Collins. With 73-year-old Collins likely to retire from politics, Axios writes, the Republicans may not make a serious effort to compete for this seat in the short term.
Collins's political career is built on her tendency to often take a more progressive stance than her party. In 2020, she outperformed Trump in Maine by 18 percentage points. This year, she has emphasized her experience. During the debates, she stated that over the past five years, she has secured $1.5 billion in funding for 672 projects in Maine. According to preliminary Voter Poll data, about six in ten Senate voters in Maine believe that Collins would be better at securing federal funding than Jackson.
Taking a distance from Trump hasn't been effective.
The same data also shows that about six in ten voters believe Collins has supported Trump too much. In 2020, about half of the voters held this view.
Collins tried to keep a distance from the president, saying in the debate that she "is not his favorite senator." However, Trump stated in an interview in August, "I hope she wins."
His trade war directly impacted Maine. Collins publicly opposed imposing additional tariffs on Canada and managed to secure some exemptions, but Jackson stated that she did not do enough when these tariffs harmed Maine's forestry, seafood industry, and tourism sector. Two weeks before the vote, Collins announced that the government would release 315,000 barrels of heating oil from reserves in the Northeast.
Her allies also made mistakes. In October, the Super Political Action Committee Defending Main Street that supports Collins stated that its supplier mistakenly spent about $25,000 on anti-Jackson advertisements in Portland, Oregon, rather than Portland, Maine.
The Bangor Daily News wrote that Collins, a politician who once rose to power through her centrist approach and negotiating skills, was ultimately defeated by the divisive national politics that she was no longer able to control.
