In the mid-term elections in the United States, the Democratic Party won control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, dealing a major political setback to President Donald Trump.

Experts say that this is not the “ideal outcome” for the crypto market, and it increases the uncertainty of future support for crypto policies. However, after a brief decline, Bitcoin has risen by 1.6% in the past 24 hours to reach $78,277, according to Decrypt data. Overall, nearly all of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market value saw gains on that day.

Bitwise Europe Research Supervisor Andr said to Decrypt: "I believe that the Democratic Party's sweeping victory was largely anticipated by the market before the mid-term elections. Since market sentiment is already very pessimistic and there are signs of selling pressure being exhausted, the downside risks brought about by these mid-term elections are quite limited. Therefore, it is not surprising to see a V-shaped rebound during the election period."

Polymarket At the beginning of this week, the probability of the Democratic Party winning both the House of Representatives and the Senate was estimated to be 65.5%. Dragosch stated that such a probability indicates that the market was not surprised by the results on Tuesday.

CoinShares, the research supervisor, also agrees with James Butterfill. He said to Decrypt, "My feeling is that Bitcoin has already largely accounted for the Democratic Party's sweeping victory, so after the uncertainty subsides, there is still room in the market for a relief rebound. Therefore, the expected outcome may not necessarily trigger a new wave of selling."

Co-founder Zenith and CBO Heslin Kim said to Decrypt: "Cryptocurrency policies did not determine the mid-term elections. The economy, oil prices, the situation in Iran, and Trump's unfulfilled promises are what matter. Cryptocurrency policies are not important to a broader electorate, but now they have become burdened with the negative activities associated with the Trump family that have occurred within our ecosystem."

HashKey Senior Analyst Tim Sun told Decrypt that this result "确实在推动加密政策的uncertainty方面有所增加," but the price trend of Bitcoin indicates that the market does not perceive it as a "significant negative catalyst."

Dragosch says that one of the reasons might be that the results of the mid-term elections do not mean that Democrats can overturn the existing pro-crypto guidelines set by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). However, Sun added that this also means that the market in the future cannot rely on Trump's "political tailwind" to drive prices as it did before.

This also makes the prospects for Clarity Act more complicated. The bill aims to establish rules for the crypto market and has been on hold since its proposal in 2025. One of the reasons is that many Democrats oppose it due to Trump's conflicts of interest in the crypto sector.

BitOK CEO Dmitry Machikhin predicted in a statement shared with Decrypt that, due to the results of the mid-term elections, Clarity Act may remain on hold until 2027.

Butterfill said, "The greater concern is the slowdown in crypto reforms. CLARITY faces a more difficult path forward, and investigations into Trump-related companies could consume political capital and create unsettling headlines throughout the industry. However, the current government is still in power, and the regulatory progress that has been made, including GENIUS, will not disappear just because of that."

He expects that US exchanges, token issuers, and companies that rely on new regulatory approvals will be more sensitive to this outcome than Bitcoin; if regulatory scrutiny falls more heavily on weaker competitors, mature and compliant operators may even benefit.

Co-founder and COO Marcin Ka ź mierczak said to Decrypt: "It is possible that the Democratic Party's control of Congress could even be beneficial to the industry to some extent. Cryptography should not rely on any one political camp. The infrastructure must be operational for those in power and bring the greatest value to all participants in the ecosystem. Finance is changing, and politics will not stop that."

Despite the change in control of the House of Representatives and the Senate, Dragosch is not expected to change significantly in the next two years.

When asked whether Clarity Act would be legalized in 2026, he said, "I personally expect there to be more disputes, disagreements, and, simply put, more situations where 'this train cannot be stopped.'" He pointed out that there is a lack of substantial progress in curbing fiscal deficits. "We will probably still be in an environment dominated by finance, with fiscal risks continuing to rise, and I think this will ultimately become a tailwind for hard assets like Bitcoin."

On the contrary, he believes that macroeconomic factors "are still dominant at present." He specifically mentioned that the Federal Reserve may be about to change its approach in order to address the "increasing risks" surrounding transactions related to AI.

Dragosch said, "This is likely to reignite market interest in assets such as Bitcoin that are resistant to devaluation, and will continue to encourage institutions to increase their holdings through ETP and treasury companies."

Butterfill also mentioned macro factors. He said, "For Bitcoin, the actual yield, US dollar liquidity, and ETP capital flows are still more important than elections. I will lower my expectations for the speed of US reforms, but I remain optimistic about institutional adoption. How Trump will react once he is constrained is the more difficult part to predict."