Key Points

• Despite a large number of whales withdrawing funds from the exchange, PEPE still plummeted by 14%.
• As futures exposure declines, the liquidation of leveraged long positions accelerates.
• Recent increases in exchange deposits have complicated the bullish narrative.

On November 12th, PEPE fell to around $0.00000456, a decrease of about 14%. Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that in the past 7 days, tracked whale wallets have withdrawn tokens worth $16.9 million from exchanges.

This downward trend highlights the increasingly apparent disconnect between large-scale position transfers and real market demand. Although exchanges allowing for coin withdrawals can reduce the supply available for sale at the moment, the latest decline of PEPE has been accompanied by forced liquidations, weakened derivatives activity, and a re-inflow of deposits into the trading platform.

This sell-off also reversed about 7% of the previous rebound in PEPE. Previously, despite the weaker performance of the broader cryptocurrency market, this meme coin still exhibited relative strength.

PEPE Whales withdrew $16.9 million, but the selling continues

According to the exchange capital flow data from Deep Blue Alpha, 47 monitored whale wallets withdrew approximately 34.7 million US dollars of PEPE from the exchange within 7 days, while depositing 17.8 million US dollars at the same time.

This means that among the 225 tracked transfers, there was a net outflow of 16.9 million US dollars.

However, these data describe the flow of funds between monitored wallets and exchange addresses, and do not equate to confirmed purchases or sales. This dataset also does not include untraced investors and other exchange activities.

More importantly, the latest 24-hour data shows that approximately $8.6 million was deposited into the exchange, while about $4.6 million was withdrawn, reversing the previous long-term trend and resulting in a net inflow of $4 million for the exchange.

This change may indicate that some large holders are increasingly willing to utilize trading liquidity, but it does not prove that these tokens have been sold.

This contradiction is similar to the actions of PEPE earlier on; during a period of strong upward trends, large transfers to exchanges had sparked concerns about selling pressure.

PEPE Long liquidation accelerates, number of open futures contracts decreases

Derivative data provides another explanation for the selling pressure.

Within the past 24 hours, futures positions of PEPE worth approximately $2.62 million were liquidated, with leveraged long positions accounting for about 94% of the total amount.

Unclosed contracts decreased by about 10% to $339 million; the funding rate turned negative, indicating that shorts are paying a fee to maintain their bearish perpetual futures positions.

This combination indicates that as prices fall, leveraged long positions are reduced. However, the decrease in open contracts denominated in US dollars may also reflect a decline in token prices, rather than merely the closing of positions.

PEPE Previous futures expansion shows how rapidly speculative positions can accumulate during periods of rising prices.

The current reversal reveals the opposite risk: when prices fall significantly, leveraged traders may be forced to close their positions, further increasing the selling pressure.

PEPE Price Forecast: Can the support level of $0.0000045 be held?

The immediate support level for PEPE is around $0.00000450, close to the recent intraday low.

If it continues to fall, it may further drop to $0.00000420, but this level is still just a conditional downward reference, not a confirmed target.

On the upside, regaining $0.00000485 would constitute a preliminary recovery signal, while $0.00000500 remains an important psychological resistance level.

The broader meme coin market has also experienced similar selling pressure, and the recent decline in Dogecoin indicates that speculative cryptocurrencies may be exacerbating the overall market weakness.

Previous whale accumulations also failed to prevent PEPE from experiencing a longer period of correction, which further illustrates that relying on withdrawals from exchanges as a reliable buying signal has its limitations.