Bitcoin briefly fell below $64,000 on July 28, before recovering to around $63,500 amid heightened risk aversion in Asian markets. Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows again, as the market awaits the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision and subsequent US GDP and core PCE data.
Asian stock markets fell, weighing on risk assets.
South Korean stocks plunged in early trading on Tuesday, with the KOSPI falling more than 8% at one point, triggering a circuit breaker and halting trading across the entire market for 20 minutes. After trading resumed, the sell-off continued, with the KOSPI falling nearly 10% intraday. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both fell by more than 12%.
Japan's Nikkei index also fell by about 4%. The previous trading day, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 2.2%, and Nvidia fell about 5%. Market concerns focused on AI capital expenditure, financing pressures, and increased competition from Chinese chip companies, factors that dragged down the performance of technology stocks and high-risk assets.
Bitcoin tends to fluctuate in tandem with the stock market during periods dominated by interest rates, liquidity, and macroeconomic sentiment. While the recent sharp decline in Asian markets cannot solely explain Bitcoin's pullback, market activity suggests traders are clearly viewing it as part of a broader risk event.
Bitcoin remains in the $60,000 to $66,000 range.
As of press time, Bitcoin had fallen approximately 2.85% in the past 24 hours, fluctuating between $63,055 and $65,546 during the day. The price has returned to the lower half of its recent trading range of $60,000 to $66,000, after several unsuccessful attempts to stabilize above this level.
From a short-term perspective, market momentum has weakened somewhat. Technical indicators cited in the article show that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below 50 and the MACD histogram has turned negative, indicating that the recovery momentum from earlier in July has slowed. However, the range-bound trading pattern remains intact as long as the $60,000 level is not decisively breached.
The market is currently focusing on several price levels that are relatively clear: if the price can regain the $65,000 to $66,000 range, the short-term structure is expected to improve; if the price continues to decline, the $61,000 level will be the first support area to watch, while $60,000 remains the core support level for the current range.
ETF outflows coexist with large-scale increases in holdings.
In terms of funding, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $11.64 million on Monday, with BlackRock's IBIT experiencing the largest outflow of the day. While this figure is significantly lower than the approximately $240 million outflow on July 24, the continued negative figures indicate that institutional fund inflows remain unstable.
However, on-chain data presents another picture. Santiment stated that wallets holding 10 to 10,000 bitcoins collectively added 19,696 bitcoins in 8 days; while wallets holding less than 0.01 bitcoins showed relatively weak buying interest on dips.
This means that large addresses are still accumulating positions, but these addresses are not necessarily a single "whale" and could also include exchanges, custodians, funds, or multiple client accounts. Whether this can provide sustained support for the price depends on whether these Bitcoins remain outside of trading platforms.
The Federal Reserve and inflation data are the short-term focus.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will meet on July 28-29. In addition to focusing on the interest rate decision itself, the market is also watching the wording of the statement to see if it signals a tighter or more dovish stance, particularly regarding changes in statements on inflation, energy prices, and subsequent policy.
This Thursday, the US will also release its preliminary Q2 GDP figures, as well as June personal income and spending data, including core PCE. If the Federal Reserve adopts a tightening stance, or if subsequent inflation data is stronger than expected, US Treasury yields and the dollar may rise, and the pressure on risk assets may continue. Conversely, if the policy stance is more accommodative and core PCE cools down, Bitcoin may retest the $65,000 to $66,000 range.
Overall, Bitcoin remains weak in the short term, and the market has not yet broken out of its current range. In the next few trading days, macroeconomic data and ETF fund flows will continue to be the main external factors determining price direction.
