Bitcoin fell below $64,000 on Tuesday, with the market turning noticeably more cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Continued outflows from spot ETFs, coupled with adjustments in leveraged positions, further amplified selling pressure during the session.

Bitcoin briefly fell to $63,327 on Tuesday, down about 2.5% from earlier in the day, before recovering to around $63,858. The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the current interest rate range of 3.50% to 3.75%, but interest rate futures still reflect a certain probability of a rate hike.

Funds are on the sidelines ahead of the Fed meeting

The Federal Reserve began its two-day policy meeting on July 28 and will announce the results on Wednesday afternoon Eastern Time. Chairman Kevin Warsh will then hold a press conference. The market is focused not only on whether rates will remain unchanged, but also on whether the post-meeting rhetoric will lean towards a tighter policy stance.

In the event of an unexpected interest rate hike, the US dollar and US Treasury yields could strengthen in tandem, which typically puts additional pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin. Even if interest rates remain unchanged, a hawkish stance in the post-meeting comments could continue to weigh on the market.

Bitcoin ETF sees outflows for three consecutive days

The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of $11.64 million on July 27, marking the third consecutive trading day of capital withdrawal. SoSoValue data shows that BlackRock IBIT saw a net outflow of $8.82 million that day, while Fidelity FBTC experienced a net outflow of $2.82 million.

While the combined net assets of these products remain at approximately $78.71 billion, the continuous outflows indicate that some institutional funds chose to reduce their Bitcoin exposure ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision. In contrast, the US spot Ethereum ETF recorded a net inflow of $9.23 million on the same day.

$62,500 and $64,500 are attracting attention.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has broken below the 4-hour uptrend line that previously supported its rebound, suggesting limited short-term recovery potential. The $64,400 to $64,600 area has seen significant leveraged positions and is also close to the 20-day moving average, potentially forming short-term resistance.

Looking down, the $62,500 to $62,600 range is a major area of high liquidity. If the price continues to fall below the 50-day moving average at $63,343, it may move further towards this area, with lower support around $61,800 to $62,000.