Apple has reclaimed its position as the world's most valuable company, and the market has quickly adjusted its betting strategies. A Polymarket contract for the world's most valuable company at the end of July showed that Apple's probability of retaining the top spot has risen to about 79%, while Nvidia's has fallen to about 22%.

The market capitalization gap can still be reversed.

As of Tuesday's close, Apple's market capitalization was approximately $4.995 trillion, while Nvidia's was approximately $4.768 trillion, a difference of about $227 billion. With only three trading days left until contract settlement, this gap is not secure, and a single day's significant fluctuation could reshape the rankings.

Polymarket bets shift

This contract is settled based on which company has the highest market capitalization at the close of trading on July 31st. Over the past day or so, the price of the Apple contract has risen significantly, reflecting traders' growing expectation that it will continue to lead the market at the end of the month.

• Apple has a 79% probability of topping the charts at the end of the month.
• Nvidia has approximately a 22% chance of topping the charts at the end of the month.
• The total trading volume of the contracts was approximately US$4.7 million.

AI spending expectations become the focus

The market's attitude towards investment in AI infrastructure has recently shifted. Previously, Nvidia benefited from the continued expansion of chip, server, and data center spending by large technology companies, leading to a continuous rise in its valuation; however, investors are now paying more attention to the payback period and cash flow pressure of such investments.

Reuters, citing estimates, suggests that by 2027, the total capital expenditure of the five major cloud computing companies could exceed their free cash flow. This has led the market to reassess the high-investment model, making Apple's relatively restrained approach to AI investment seem more acceptable.

Apple's earnings report is approaching

Apple has not withdrawn from the AI race. In early June, the company showcased a redesigned Siri, featuring enhanced conversational capabilities and contextual understanding. While still relying on external models to some extent, it also incorporates its own on-device models to drive product updates.

This approach was previously seen as Apple falling behind in the AI race, but market perception has shifted after pressure to increase capital expenditures. Apple will release its third fiscal quarter results at 5 p.m. ET on July 30, which is one of the most closely watched catalysts before contract settlement.

• Apple's earnings report will be released after market close on July 30.
• The contract settlement time is after the market closes on July 31.