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web3: Quantum computing approaches, and the encryption industry is preparing for a large-scale migration
Fortune
08-15 18:29
Ai Focus
Quantum computing threats drive discussions in the crypto industry about quantum-resistant migration, with focus on wallet and exchange support, as well as the security of key assets such as Bitcoin and USDT.
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随着量子计算研究持续推进，加密行业开始更认真地讨论一项长期问题：在足够强大的量子计算机出现前，如何把现有数字资产体系迁移到新的加密方案上。业内将这一过程称为“大规模量子迁移”。

超过 2 万亿美元资产受影响

目前，大量数字资产仍依赖椭圆曲线加密来证明所有权和签署交易。这套体系在传统计算环境下长期被认为足够安全，因为破解私钥所需计算量极高。

Quantus 联合创始人兼首席执行官 Christopher Smith 表示，超过 2 万亿美元数字资产由这类加密方式保护，规模接近整个加密市场总市值。Google 研究人员此前也提出，攻击这类加密所需的计算资源，可能低于过去估计。

钱包和管理密钥更受关注

Smith 认为，大型比特币钱包可能成为明显目标。他举例称，Binance 的比特币冷钱包持有规模超过 100 亿美元。相比之下，USDT 的管理密钥被视为更敏感的环节，因为它关系到稳定币发行控制。

他表示，一旦这类密钥被攻破，冲击可能不只停留在单一资产，还可能波及依赖稳定币流动性的 DeFi 协议。不过 Coinbase 对 Fortune 表示，不能把整个加密生态视为同等脆弱，真正更需要关注的是钱包层面的暴露风险。

迁移难点在行业协同

Google 曾提出，到 2029 年前后，加密系统应逐步迁离易受量子攻击的加密方案。美国国家标准与技术研究院也已推动后量子密码标准化，给出可替代算法。

Coinbase 认为，把抗量子签名加入区块链本身是可解决的工程问题，更难的是迁移如何落地，尤其是那些没有及时迁移的资产怎么办。其独立量子顾问委员会近期已发布报告，讨论遗留地址和被遗弃资产的处理问题。

多家机构已开始准备

这类升级不同于中心化服务更换加密方式。即便开发者完成协议升级，如果交易所不支持，用户可能无法转移资产；如果钱包没有跟进，旧地址上的风险仍会保留。

Coinbase 目前是比特币安全联盟的创始成员之一。该联盟成员包括 BlackRock、Fidelity Digital Assets、Block、Blockstream 和 Strategy。Coinbase 还表示，正为量子安全相关开发提供资金和工程支持，涉及 BIP-360 等提案及后量子迁移路径研究。

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